So, how did my Poll of Polls do? Pretty rubbish really… The rapid rise of NZ First and the Conservatives during the last half of the campaign didn’t come through in my results, and there certainly seems to be something systemic about the Greens’ ability to fall short of their poll results come election day.
So, I’ve been playing around with the numbers, and have messed with my algorithm to produce what should (hopefully) be a more accurate beast. The changes involve further front-loading of the weighting of new polls (so that the Poll of Polls responds more quickly to meteoric rises a la NZ First and the Conservatives), updating the in-house polling bias offsets, and introducing industry bias offsets (to hopefully deal with issues such as the systematic overly high poll results for the Greens or the lower on average results for NZ First, compared to election day results).
The Poll of Polls is therefore reborn, all ready for today’s Roy Morgan poll. If Labour needed any further evidence that the public think the party is in a hopeless state of disarray, this is it. The party hits a new Roy Morgan low of just 22.5%. National also slumps, hitting 43.5%.
The Greens are the big winners, hitting a record high of 17.5% – cold comfort, given their relatively lacklustre election result. Of the remaining minor parties, NZ First is on 7%, the Maori Party is on 2%, ACT is on 0.5%, United Future is on 0.5%, the Conservatives are on a record high of 5%, and Internet Mana is on 1%.
So how does the new (hopefully) improved Poll of Polls look?
National: 46.1% (-0.9% from its election result)
Labour: 24.6% (-0.5%)
Greens: 11.8% (+1.1%)
NZ First: 8.3% (-0.4%)
Maori: 1.2% (-0.1%)
United Future: 0.3% (+0.1%)
ACT: 0.7% (nc)
Internet Mana: 1.6% (+0.2%)
Conservative: 4.2% (+0.2%)
Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:
National: 59 (-1 from its election result)
Labour: 32 (nc)
Greens: 15 (+1)
NZ First: 11 (nc)
Maori: 2 (nc)
United Future: 1 (nc)
ACT: 1 (nc)
Internet Mana: 0 (nc)
Conservative: 0 (nc)
Given National’s drop in the Roy Morgan, and the Greens’ outlier of a result, it’s not surprising to see National lose a seat to the Greens. Whether the Greens can hold anywhere near their Roy Morgan support in other upcoming polls remains to be seen…
The Right bloc sits on a total of 61 seats, compared to 47 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.