Poll of Polls

Rebirth of the Poll of Polls

So, how did my Poll of Polls do? Pretty rubbish really… The rapid rise of NZ First and the Conservatives during the last half of the campaign didn’t come through in my results, and there certainly seems to be something systemic about the Greens’ ability to fall short of their poll results come election day.

So, I’ve been playing around with the numbers, and have messed with my algorithm to produce what should (hopefully) be a more accurate beast. The changes involve further front-loading of the weighting of new polls (so that the Poll of Polls responds more quickly to meteoric rises a la NZ First and the Conservatives), updating the in-house polling bias offsets, and introducing industry bias offsets (to hopefully deal with issues such as the systematic overly high poll results for the Greens or the lower on average results for NZ First, compared to election day results).

The Poll of Polls is therefore reborn, all ready for today’s Roy Morgan poll. If Labour needed any further evidence that the public think the party is in a hopeless state of disarray, this is it. The party hits a new Roy Morgan low of just 22.5%. National also slumps, hitting 43.5%.

The Greens are the big winners, hitting a record high of 17.5% – cold comfort, given their relatively lacklustre election result. Of the remaining minor parties, NZ First is on 7%, the Maori Party is on 2%, ACT is on 0.5%, United Future is on 0.5%, the Conservatives are on a record high of 5%, and Internet Mana is on 1%.

So how does the new (hopefully) improved Poll of Polls look?

National: 46.1% (-0.9% from its election result)

Labour: 24.6% (-0.5%)

Greens: 11.8% (+1.1%)

NZ First: 8.3% (-0.4%)

Maori: 1.2% (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.3% (+0.1%)

ACT: 0.7% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.6% (+0.2%)

Conservative: 4.2% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 59 (-1 from its election result)

Labour: 32 (nc)

Greens: 15 (+1)

NZ First: 11 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 0 (nc)

Conservative: 0 (nc)

Given National’s drop in the Roy Morgan, and the Greens’ outlier of a result, it’s not surprising to see National lose a seat to the Greens. Whether the Greens can hold anywhere near their Roy Morgan support in other upcoming polls remains to be seen…

The Right bloc sits on a total of 61 seats, compared to 47 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

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So, predictions…

I’ve been keeping track of the polls with my Poll of Polls (final update here), but of course polls technically aren’t prediction devices. They ask the question, “If an election were held today/tomorrow”, and are therefore only so useful when it comes to predicting what people will do in a few days time.

Likewise, Poll of Polls’ are generally fairly slow at adjusting to sudden events. They help cancel out statistical noise, but sometimes when a party shoots up in the polls it’s not statistical noise; the party actually is significantly more popular than it was the previous day, week or month.

The rise of NZ First and the Conservatives is a case in point. The final pre-election polls from each of the five main polling companies shows a spread of 6.6% to 8.4% for NZ First (an average of 7.6%), while my Poll of Polls has them on just 6.3%, outside the spread altogether.

Likewise, the final polls for the Conservatives show a spread of between 3.3% and 4.9%, while my Poll of Polls has them on 3.3%, at the very bottom of the spread.

Then there’s the perennial issue of whether the polls are inherently biased. Are they missing important swathes of the voting population, resulting in fundamentally skewed results? My Poll of Polls adjusts each poll based on how far above or below the industry average that polling company is. It doesn’t adjust for whether the polls are inherently out in relation to election results., largely those results can change quite markedly from election to election.

There are a few bias-adjusted predictions out there. Over at the Dim-Post, Danyl McLauchlan Poll of Polls applies a significant downward adjustment to National, and a significant upward adjustment to NZ First (there are other adjustments, but those are the big ones). I think his adjustments are too large, but there you go… I guess we’ll soon know just right or otherwise he is…

Danyl has given his predictions for five parties, heavily couched with 2% bands:

  • National 42 – 44%
  • Labour 22 – 24%
  • Greens 13 – 15%
  • NZ First 7 – 9%
  • Conservatives 5 – 7% (although he further couches his prediction by noting that the recent controversy over the resignation of Colin Craig’s press secretary might drop the Conservatives below 5%).

And Gavin White has published his bias-adjusted predictions for the parties he has “good data” for:

  • National – 45%
  • Labour – 26%
  • Greens – 11%
  • NZ First – 9%
  • Maori – 1.3%
  • ACT – 0.8%
  • United Future – 0.6%

My gut feeling prediction?

  • National 46%
  • Labour 26%
  • Greens 12%
  • NZ First 8%
  • Conservatives 4%
  • Maori – 1%
  • United Future – 0.2%
  • ACT – 0.5%
  • Internet Mana – 1.9%

Now let’s see how wrong I am come Saturday night!

Poll of Polls update – 19 September 2014

It’s time for the final pre-election Poll of Polls update! We’ve had the last Herald Digipoll and Fairfax Ipsos poll results this morning, so we’re good to go. (If Roy Morgan suddenly publish a three-day poll this afternoon, then bugger ’em!)

In the Herald Digipoll, there’s a minor fall for National, down 0.4% to 48.2%. Labour rise 1.3% to 25.9%, while the Greens fall back 0.5% to 11%.

NZ First are sitting pretty on 8.4% (up 0.3%), while the Conservatives fall of the pace, down 0.5% to 3.3%.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party is on 1.1% (up 0.4%), Internet Mana is on 1.0% (down a large 1.3%), ACT is on 0.5% (up 0.2%), and United Future is on 0.2% (up 0.2%).

In the Fairfax Ipsos poll, National slump a massive 5.1%, but that still leaves them on a relatively respectable 47.7%. Labour meanwhile rises handsomely, up by 3.7%, but that leaves them on a still disappointing 26.1%. The Greens lose ground, down 1.0% to 12.0%.

NZ First is on 6.6% (up 2.2%), while the Conservatives miss out on the 5% threshold in yet another poll, hitting 4.5%, despite increasing 0.9%.

The Maori Party is on 0.9% (down 0.1%), United Future fails to register, ACT is on 0.3% (down 0.4%) and Internet Mana is on 0.9% (down 0.5%).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls ends up:

National: 47.6% (-0.1%)

Labour: 25.9% (-0.1%)

Greens: 12.6% (-0.1%)

NZ First: 6.3% (+0.2%)

Maori: 1.0% (+0.1%)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.9% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 3.3% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 32 (nc)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 8 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

It’s uneventful final update, with no movement in the seat count, and just minor movements in the party vote stakes. Labour drop to a new low, but that’s almost par for the course these days.

That means that the Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 50 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

Poll of Polls update – 17 September 2014

Two new polls out today – this afternoon’s Roy Morgan, and this evening’s 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, National rise to 46.5% (up 1.5%), while Labour slumps 2% to 24%, and the Greens drop an even larger 2.5% to 13.5%.

It’s a great poll result for NZ First, who rise to 8.0% (up 2%). It’s their second best result from any major polling company this year, beaten only by the 8.1% they achieved in the latest Herald Digipoll.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party hits 1.5% (up 1%), United Future rises from zero to 0.5%, ACT loses half of their support, dropping from 1% to 0.5%, and there’s no change for Internet Mana and the Conservatives, on 1.0% and 3.5% respectively.

The 3News Reid Research poll, meanwhile, is a very different beast. National achieve their worst result this year from any major pollster, hitting 44.5% (down 2.2%).

It’s not great news for Labour though, who also drop – down 0.5% to 25.6%. It’s yet another mid-twenties result – in fact, it’s the twentieth major poll in a row in which Labour has failed to get to 30%.

The Greens are up 1.4% to 14.4%, while NZ First has another great result, hitting 7.1% (up 1.2%).

The big talking point though is the Conservatives. They’re on 4.9% (up 0.2%); so close to the 5% threshold it’s frightening. Of course, Reid Research is the only polling company that has them above 4%, so it remains to be seen whether they’re right and everyone else is wrong…

For the remaining minor parties, Internet Mana are on 2.0% (up 0.3%), the Maori Party is on 1.1% (down 0.2%), ACT is on 0.1% (down 0.2%), and United Future is on 0.1% (up 0.1%).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 47.9% (-0.3%)

Labour: 26.0% (-0.1%)

Greens: 12.7% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 5.9% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (+0.1)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.0% (nc)

Conservative: 3.2% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (+1)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (-1)

In the party vote stakes, the biggest mover is National, falling 0.3%. That puts them at their lowest result since early June. Labour also fall (again) though, and they reach (another) new Poll of Polls low.

With National and Labour predictably falling during the election campaign, it’s the rise of the minor parties, with another Poll of Polls high for the Greens, NZ First and the Conservatives.

Seat-wise, last update Labour loses a seat to Internet Mana, by the most minuscule of margins. This update, again by the most minuscule of margins, they win it back.

That means that the Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

Poll of Polls update – 14 September 2014

For some reason, Fairfax have delayed the release of their 11 September 2014 Ipsos poll to this morning (the Ipsos Polling Station on Stuff even calls it their “September 11 2014 Poll”). It’s almost standard these days to describe each new poll as “another bad for Labour”, but this Ipsos poll is the worst result Labour has had this year from any major polling company.

Labour slumps 1.9% to just 22.4%. On that sort of election day result, Labour would be losing (depending on how various electorate results go) Sue Moroney, Andrew Little, Maryan Street, Moana Mackey, Kelvin Davis, Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont, while Jacinda Ardern would be looking anxiously at the level of wasted vote, hoping it would bump her in. (If Labour lose both Palmerston North and Port Hills, it would be Andrew Little looking anxiously at the wasted vote level, while Iain Lees-Galloway wouldn’t make it from the list; Ruth Dyson in Port Hills of course isn’t on the list.)

National, meanwhile, is on 52.8%, having dropped 1.4%.

Ipsos may overstate National and understate Labour to a greater average level than any of the other major polling companies, but that’s still a horror result for Labour, in the final week of the campaign.

The Greens rise a small 0.1%, to 13%. But that provides a Labour / Greens alliance with a total bloc of just 35.4%

NZ First are well down on their other recent poll results, on just 4.4% (although that’s an increase of 0.8%). Nonetheless, Ipsos are the only polling company currently placing the party at below 5%, so NZ First won’t be unduly worried by the result.

The Conservatives rise 1.2% to 3.6%. It’s their highest Ipsos result, but it’s still well short of where they need to be at this stage in the campaign.

Of the remaining minor parties, Internet Mana are up 0.1% to 1.4%, well short of their previous highs. They’ll be hoping that Kim Dotcom provides enough positive publicity on Monday evening to give them a late surge. The Maori Party are on 1.0% (up 0.7%), United Future don’t feature (having lost 0.1%), and ACT are on 0.7% (up 0.5%).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.2% (+0.1%)

Labour: 26.1% (-0.1%)

Greens: 12.6% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 5.7% (-0.1%)

Maori: 0.9% (+0.1)

United Future: 0.1% (-0.1)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.0% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 3.0% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 32 (-1)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (+1)

In the party vote stakes, the movements are only minor, with no party moving more than 0.1%. Nonetheless, it’s a new Poll of Polls low for Labour (again) and a new high for the Greens, while United Future drop back to just 0.1%.

By the tiniest of amounts, Labour loses a seat to Internet Mana, meaning there’s no change in the Left/Right balance.

The Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

Poll of Polls update – 12 September 2014

This morning, the latest Herald Digipoll was released. It shows National down 1.5% to 48.6%, still a creditable result, while Labour rises 0.8% to 24.6%, a less than creditable result. In the last eight major polls, Labour hasn’t managed to get above 26%, which will be terrifying the list MPs and marginal electorate candidates.

The Greens rise a small 0.1%, to 11.5% – down on the 13% and 14% they received in the last Reid Research and Colmar Brunton polls over recent days.

Of the remaining minor parties, NZ First receive their best poll result this year from any polling company, hitting 8.1%, having risen 2.1%. With the last five major polls all showing the party above 5%, and with three of those five polls showing them on 7% or above, NZ First are looking extremely comfortable in their quest for a return to Parliament.

The Conservatives remain unchanged on 3.8%, while Internet Mana slump by 1.2% to drop to 2.3%. The Maori are on 0.7% (up 0.3%), and United Future lose 0.3% to a flat zero.

ACT falls 0.1% to 0.3%, a rather different result to last night’s Colmar Brunton poll which had the party on 1.2%, the highest polling the party had had from any polling company this year.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.1% (-0.1%)

Labour: 26.2% (-0.2%)

Greens: 12.5% (nc)

NZ First: 5.8% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.8% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (nc)

Conservative: 3.0% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

There’s no change in the seat share, but in terms of the parties’ vote share, National again falls, down another 0.1% after some previous excellent poll results dropped out of their time-weighting bands. It’s worse news for Labour though, hitting a new Poll of Polls low of 26.2%, thanks to a 0.2% drop.

NZ First and the Conservatives continue to climb, again hitting new Poll of Polls highs for the third update in a row.

The Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

Poll of Polls update – 11 September 2014

This evening, we’ve just had the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll released, with some quite interesting results.

National slump a large 4% to 46%. That places them in the danger zone, where David Cunliffe could potentially form a coalition, albeit one involving the Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party.

Labour drops too, down 1% to just 25%. Yet another poll, yet another bad result for Labour.

The Greens are the big movers, up 3% to 14%, a result they’ll be more than happy with.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First remains on 7%, comfortably above the 5% threshold, while the Conservatives climb 1.1% to 4%. It’s yet another good poll for the Conservatives, but they’re still awaiting a result that puts them over 5%.

ACT also have some significant movement, going from 0.1% to 1.2%. That’s the first poll this year that has had them above 1%, and it’s ever so close to bringing in party leader Jamie Whyte.

Internet Mana slump 1% to 1.4%, while the Maori Party rise 0.6% to 0.8%. United Future double their support, going from 0.1% 0.2%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.2% (-0.2%)

Labour: 26.4% (nc)

Greens: 12.5% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 5.6% (+0.1%)

Maori: 0.8% (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (+0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (nc)

Conservative: 2.9% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 16 (+1)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (-1)

In terms of the parties’ vote share, National continues to slump; from a high point of 50.4% a month and a half ago, they’ve now dropped a full 2%. Those lost voters aren’t going to Labour though, who remain static on their low point of 26.4%.

Instead, the support seems to be flowing to NZ First and the Conservatives, both of whom continue to creep up, both reaching new Poll of Polls highs.

Seat-wise, the slight rise of the Greens, who also achieve a Poll of Polls high, sees them stealing a seat from Internet Mana, who remain stalled at 2.1%, all momentum currently lost.

The Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

ACT goes for broke

ACT’s campaign launch occurred yesterday. It’s slightly odd that the party would launch their campaign after people have already started voting, but there you go. Keeping their powder dry and all that…

Party leader Jamie Whyte’s keynote speech to the ACT faithful was everything his party would have hoped for – a mixture of hard-hitting attacks on just about every party around (I think the only party he didn’t bother to attack was United Future, which is a good measure of Peter Dunne’s continued irrelevance) and the release of some old-fashioned back-to-ACT’s-roots policy.

Policy-wise, ACT would abolish the Overseas Investment Office:

It has no proper job to do. When foreigners invest in New Zealand, we benefit. There is no injury for the OIO to protect us from.

Likewise, the Resource Management Act would go to:

The problem is not with the administration of the RMA. The problem is with the very conception of it. The RMA is an assault on property rights that stifles investment and economic growth. The restrictions it puts on using land for residential development are the reason housing is so expensive.

The speech will certainly have fired up the troops. Matthew Hooton was aflame with passion about it this morning on Radio NZ’s Nine to Noon programme, while David Farrar couldn’t resist quoting extensively from it at Kiwiblog.

The problem ACT faces is that “the troops” really aren’t a significant chunk of the population. The most ACT has polled this year is 1%, while sometimes they’ve failed to register at all. In this site’s Poll of Polls, they’re currently sitting on just 0.4%, not quite low enough to produce an overhang, but well below the approximately 1.3% they need to bring in Jamie Whyte (assuming David Seymour takes Epsom).

ACT needs something that will resonate with more than 1% of the population, and quickly. They’ve tried a return to One Law For All (which was again recapped in Whyte’s speech), but it produced no sparks in the polls. Winston Peters, Colin Craig and, to a lesser extent, David Cunliffe were already on board that particular bandwagon, and the remainder of ACT’s  policy platform obviously wasn’t palatable enough to lure the One Law For All vote from those parties towards ACT.

ACT presumably hopes that there is a significant core of landowners who are sick to death of being told what they can and can’t do with their property by the RMA. (Although, of course, David Seymour has been campaigning on putting greater RMA-style roadblocks in the path of development in Epsom, which seems more than a little ideologically impure or, dare I say it, hypocritical.) Quite who the party is targeting with the eradication of the OIO is less clear. How many large farm-owners can there possibly be who will vote ACT in order to sell their farms to foreigners without having to go through the OIO? Every vote counts, I suppose.

But will the RMA and OIO policy backfire on ACT? Rachel Smalley certainly seems to think so:

He appears to lack the one attribute that every political party leader in this country has, and that is an emotional attachment to New Zealand. Winston has it, so does Key and Cunliffe and Norman. Colin Craig does. Harawira, Harré, Flavell, Turei, Dunne – they all have it in spades. Whyte doesn’t.

It does not concern him if every last acre is sold offshore. Let the market decide, he will say. ACT sees New Zealand as a market, to be bought and sold to the highest bidder.

So will this resonate with voters? No, it won’t. Nothing ACT does resonates with voters. Have a look at the polls – the party barely registers any support at all.

So what will Epsom voters do in light of this? Will voters accept their role as political zombies and do as they’re told, breathing life into the ACT Party? Or will they vote how they wish, perhaps for the Conservatives, perhaps for National, and let nature take its course?

We shall see. Whyte has snatched some headlines with this policy, but at what cost? The philosopher, I think, has gone a step too far with this one.

I’m not sure I agree with Ms Smalley on her conclusion that Whyte’s speech is a step too far. Setting aside ACT’s perennially populist ‘tough on crime’ and One Law For All stances, their policy settings have always been dry and rational (depending on your particular brand of rationality). Epsom voters know that ACT will have little to no sway in the next Parliament, and exist in all practical terms merely to ensure the continuance of a National-led Government. They know there is no chance that National would go along with abolition of the RMA, and a less-than-zero chance that National would buck strong public opinion against overseas asset sales. The calculus is simple: A vote for David Seymour in Epsom is a vote for a further three years of a National-led Government.

Where I do agree with Ms Smalley is with her assessment that ACT’s RMA and OIO policies won’t resonate with voters. The party is going for broke with a headline grabbing speech, but the timing is all wrong. The minor party debates have now been and gone, and the focus will now shift to the remaining Key v Cunliffe debates. Abolishing the RMA and OIO needed to be hammered home weeks ago, when Whyte had easy access to the cameras. Instead, perusing the NZ Herald and Stuff websites this morning, Whyte’s speech has largely sunk without trace.

Jamie Whyte should begin resigning himself to remaining a leader outside of Parliament.

Poll of Polls update – 5 September 2014

EDIT: Further updated with the One News Colmar Brunton poll, which had overlooked my attention.

Another day, another three polls, with the Herald DigipollFairfax Ipsos and One News Colmar Brunton polls being released today. All three results are good news for National, after some recent lacklustre polling, and bad news for Labour, with their lacklustre polling continuing.

In the Herald Digipoll, National fall slightly, down 0.6%, but they’re still above 50%, sitting on 50.1%. National may have fallen slightly, but so have Labour, who drop 0.3% to a terrible 23.8%. The Greens remain static on 11.4%.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First rise 1% to 6%, while the Conservatives climb 0.5% to 3.%. ACT (on 0.4%), United Future (on 0.2%) and Internet Mana (on 3.5%) all rise 0.1%. The only minor party dropping is the Maori Party, down 0.6% to 0.4%.

In the Fairfax Ipsos poll, National rises sharply, up 3.4% to 54.2%. When National dropped in the last Ipsos poll, I warned that National were simply returning to the mean, following an unnaturally high results from Ipsos. Well, National’s back up there again, bouncing around like a pinball.

And it’s another terrible result for Labour. They fall 1.8% to 24.3%, not able to scrape even 25% in either of today’s polls. The Greens rise though, up 1.1% to 12.9%. Nonetheless, their rise doesn’t offset Labour’s loss, and neither of the Greens’ poll results today are close to the 16% they recorded in the last Roy Morgan poll from a few days ago.

NZ First is on just 3.6%, having fallen 0.4%. It’s a strange result, given their run of recent polls that have had them above 5%, and especially given their 6% in today’s Digipoll.

Whereas the Digipoll had all the remaining minor parties but the Maori Party increasing their vote share, the Ipsos poll has them dropping, apart from United Future which remains static on 0.1%. The Maori Party drops 0.4% to 0.3%, ACT 0.5% to just 0.2%, Internet Mana drops 0.9% to 1.3%, and the Conservates drop 0.3% to 2.4%.

In the One News Colmar Brunton poll, National rises 2% to 50%, while Labour falls 2% to 48%. It’s the second of the three polls today in which the Greens also fall, down 1% to 11%.

NZ First are almost double what they’re on the Ipsos poll. They rise 1% to 7%, their best-equal poll result this year from all the major polls (equalling the mid-May Colmar Brunton result).

For the remainder of the minor parties, the Conservatives drop slightly (down 0.3% to 2.9%), Internet Mana make gains (up 0.8% to 2.4%), the Maori Party sags badly (down 0.4% to just 0.2%), ACT loses 0.3% to drop to 0.1%, and United Future remains steady on 0.1%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.7% (+0.2%)

Labour: 26.5% (-0.3%)

Greens: 12.3% (-0.1%)

NZ First: 5.3% (+0.1%)

Maori: 0.8% (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.4% (-0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.2% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 2.7% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

In terms of the parties’ vote share, National arrest their recent slide, increasing by 0.2%, while Labour drop to yet another new low, dropping 0.3% to 26.5%.

NZ First creeps up another 0.1%, remaining comfortably enough about the 5% threshold, with 5.3%. That’s their highest point in the Poll of Polls this year.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives continue their advance, up another 0.1% to yet another new high of 2.7%. Nonetheless, with just two weeks to go, they may have left their run a little late, especially since they’ve got above 4% in just one major poll this year.

Seat-wise, there’s no change. National’s increased share of the vote is outweighed by NZ First also increasing just enough to keep the seat that it took from National last update.

The Right therefore remains on a total of 63 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.

Poll of Polls update – 3 September 2014

We’ve had two polls out today, the latest Roy Morgan poll and the 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, there’s a slump for National, down 3% to 45%. Despite National’s fall, there’s no good news for the Labour Party, who drop 1.5% to 26%. Instead, the news is overwhelmingly good for the Greens, who rise a huge 4.5% to 16%, their best Roy Morgan result in over two years.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First may be down 0.5%, but they’re still on 6%, which would see them returned to Parliament. The Conservatives climb 2.5% to 3.5% (their highest ever Roy Morgan result), while ACT is up 0.5% to 1%. There’s bad news for the Maori Party (who drop from 1% to 0.5%), United Future (who don’t even register, having dropped 0.5%), Internet Mana (who drop 1% to 1.5%).

In the Reid Research poll, National rises, up 1.4% to 46.4%. It’s a rise, but it’s still not a great result, if they don’t want to depend on NZ First or the Maori Party.

It’s worse though for Labour. They fall in both of tonight’s polls, dropping 0.5% to 25.9%. In the Reid Research poll, the Greens have no good news either, dropping 0.9% to 12.6%, a rather different result to the Roy Morgan.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First again makes the 5% threshold, hitting 5.8% despite falling 0.5%. The Maori Party increase 1.3% to 2%, wile ACT doubles its vote from 0.3% to 0.6%. There are falls for the rest: United Future drop 0.3%, leaving them on 0.1% (although at least they’re registering, compared to the Roy Morgan); Internet Man drop 0.4% to 1.7%; and the Conservatives drop 0.4% to 4.2%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.5% (-0.5%)

Labour: 26.8% (nc)

Greens: 12.4% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 5.2% (nc)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.4% (+0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 2.6% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (-1)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (+1)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

The big news is that National loses a seat to NZ First. National has dropped 0.5% in a few days, and almost 2% in just over two weeks. It was inevitable that they’d drop during the campaign, but the drop has suddenly accelerated, which should worry National.

There’s no comfort for Labour. They’re static at 26.8%, still stuck on their worst numbers this year, and below their result at the last election.

For the minor parties, the Greens continue to rise. They’re at 12.4%, their equal highest result this year, last achieved back in mid-May.

Likewise, the Conservatives continue their rise, up another 0.2% to a new high of 2.6%. In less than two weeks, their average polling has increased 0.7% – a huge change in momentum, given the length of time they were stuck on 1.4 – 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the momentum has disappeared for Internet Mana. They fall again, after what had been an almost quarter year continued rise in support. Certainly, the recent bad headlines – Pam Corkery’s blowout, and Georgina Beyer’s attack on Kim Dotcom – won’t have helped their cause in the near future.

NZ First may not have risen, but they’ll be happy, maintaining their presence above 5%.

The Right now has a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. With both United Future and the Maori Party providing overhang seats, National’s 60 seats means they can’t quite govern alone, but the Right bloc would still have enough seats seats to not require NZ First.

The loss of a seat from National to NZ First means though that if the Maori Party fail to hold Te Tai Hauauru, National cannot now govern alone, and would need one of either United Future or ACT.