It’s time for the final pre-election Poll of Polls update! We’ve had the last Herald Digipoll and Fairfax Ipsos poll results this morning, so we’re good to go. (If Roy Morgan suddenly publish a three-day poll this afternoon, then bugger ’em!)
In the Herald Digipoll, there’s a minor fall for National, down 0.4% to 48.2%. Labour rise 1.3% to 25.9%, while the Greens fall back 0.5% to 11%.
NZ First are sitting pretty on 8.4% (up 0.3%), while the Conservatives fall of the pace, down 0.5% to 3.3%.
For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party is on 1.1% (up 0.4%), Internet Mana is on 1.0% (down a large 1.3%), ACT is on 0.5% (up 0.2%), and United Future is on 0.2% (up 0.2%).
In the Fairfax Ipsos poll, National slump a massive 5.1%, but that still leaves them on a relatively respectable 47.7%. Labour meanwhile rises handsomely, up by 3.7%, but that leaves them on a still disappointing 26.1%. The Greens lose ground, down 1.0% to 12.0%.
NZ First is on 6.6% (up 2.2%), while the Conservatives miss out on the 5% threshold in yet another poll, hitting 4.5%, despite increasing 0.9%.
The Maori Party is on 0.9% (down 0.1%), United Future fails to register, ACT is on 0.3% (down 0.4%) and Internet Mana is on 0.9% (down 0.5%).
So here’s how the Poll of Polls ends up:
National: 47.6% (-0.1%)
Labour: 25.9% (-0.1%)
Greens: 12.6% (-0.1%)
NZ First: 6.3% (+0.2%)
Maori: 1.0% (+0.1%)
United Future: 0.1% (nc)
ACT: 0.5% (nc)
Internet Mana: 1.9% (-0.1%)
Conservative: 3.3% (+0.1%)
Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:
National: 60 (nc)
Labour: 32 (nc)
Greens: 16 (nc)
NZ First: 8 (nc)
Maori: 2 (nc)
United Future: 1 (nc)
ACT: 1 (nc)
Internet Mana: 2 (nc)
It’s uneventful final update, with no movement in the seat count, and just minor movements in the party vote stakes. Labour drop to a new low, but that’s almost par for the course these days.
That means that the Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 50 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.