Poll of Polls update – 18 September 2014

We’ve had the final pre-election One News Colmar Brunton poll tonight, so it’s the second to last Poll of Polls update before the election, with the Herald Digipoll and Fairfax Ipsos polls due out tomorrow (although you can already find the Digipoll results if you look on Wikipedia – that’s what happens when you release the percentage changes and expect that no one will do the maths…).

National drop 1% to 45%, leaving them well and truly in danger zone territory. Labour remains static on 25%, while the Greens fall 2% to 12%.

NZ First comfortably waltz back into Parliament with 8% (up 1%), as opposed to the Conservatives, who may have gone up by 0.4%, but still remain below the 5% threshold on 4.4%.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party doubles its vote from 0.8% to 1.6%, Internet Mana is on 1.8% (up 0.4%), ACT is on 0.6% (down 0.6%), and United Future fails to register (down 0.2%).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 47.7% (-0.2%)

Labour: 26.0% (nc)

Greens: 12.7% (nc)

NZ First: 6.1% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (-0.1)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.0% (nc)

Conservative: 3.2% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 32 (-1)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 8 (+1)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

In the party vote stakes, National continues to fall, dropping another 0.2%. They’ve lost half a per cent in just 4 days. Meanwhile, NZ First continues to rise, breaking past 6% for the first time this year.

NZ First’s party vote gains are enough to see it take a seat off Labour, who therefore lose the seat they won off Internet Mana last update.

That means that the Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 50 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

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4 comments

  1. Reblogged this on Talking Auckland and commented:
    Second to last poll of polls from the Occasionally Erudite blog site (one more coming up later today). Weighing this alongside Kiwi Blog’s average weighting system (http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/09/the_2014_election_polls.html ) we can see a settling down with the final polls. Although that said National are continuing to slip with NZ First continuing to gain. This gives the possible situation that either NZF or the Maori Party will hold the balance of power and we could very well see either a Centre Right or Left Government all things depending.

    My vote was cast on Tuesday and the recent events from then would have not changed my voting stance. Needless to say watching my home electorate of Papakura will be interesting to see how much damage Judith Collins has received in the end. We shall all know Sunday morning.

    MEANWHILE GET OUT AND VOTE

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