Poll of Polls update – 17 September 2014

Two new polls out today – this afternoon’s Roy Morgan, and this evening’s 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, National rise to 46.5% (up 1.5%), while Labour slumps 2% to 24%, and the Greens drop an even larger 2.5% to 13.5%.

It’s a great poll result for NZ First, who rise to 8.0% (up 2%). It’s their second best result from any major polling company this year, beaten only by the 8.1% they achieved in the latest Herald Digipoll.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party hits 1.5% (up 1%), United Future rises from zero to 0.5%, ACT loses half of their support, dropping from 1% to 0.5%, and there’s no change for Internet Mana and the Conservatives, on 1.0% and 3.5% respectively.

The 3News Reid Research poll, meanwhile, is a very different beast. National achieve their worst result this year from any major pollster, hitting 44.5% (down 2.2%).

It’s not great news for Labour though, who also drop – down 0.5% to 25.6%. It’s yet another mid-twenties result – in fact, it’s the twentieth major poll in a row in which Labour has failed to get to 30%.

The Greens are up 1.4% to 14.4%, while NZ First has another great result, hitting 7.1% (up 1.2%).

The big talking point though is the Conservatives. They’re on 4.9% (up 0.2%); so close to the 5% threshold it’s frightening. Of course, Reid Research is the only polling company that has them above 4%, so it remains to be seen whether they’re right and everyone else is wrong…

For the remaining minor parties, Internet Mana are on 2.0% (up 0.3%), the Maori Party is on 1.1% (down 0.2%), ACT is on 0.1% (down 0.2%), and United Future is on 0.1% (up 0.1%).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 47.9% (-0.3%)

Labour: 26.0% (-0.1%)

Greens: 12.7% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 5.9% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (+0.1)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.0% (nc)

Conservative: 3.2% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (+1)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (-1)

In the party vote stakes, the biggest mover is National, falling 0.3%. That puts them at their lowest result since early June. Labour also fall (again) though, and they reach (another) new Poll of Polls low.

With National and Labour predictably falling during the election campaign, it’s the rise of the minor parties, with another Poll of Polls high for the Greens, NZ First and the Conservatives.

Seat-wise, last update Labour loses a seat to Internet Mana, by the most minuscule of margins. This update, again by the most minuscule of margins, they win it back.

That means that the Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

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