For some reason, Fairfax have delayed the release of their 11 September 2014 Ipsos poll to this morning (the Ipsos Polling Station on Stuff even calls it their “September 11 2014 Poll”). It’s almost standard these days to describe each new poll as “another bad for Labour”, but this Ipsos poll is the worst result Labour has had this year from any major polling company.
Labour slumps 1.9% to just 22.4%. On that sort of election day result, Labour would be losing (depending on how various electorate results go) Sue Moroney, Andrew Little, Maryan Street, Moana Mackey, Kelvin Davis, Raymond Huo and Carol Beaumont, while Jacinda Ardern would be looking anxiously at the level of wasted vote, hoping it would bump her in. (If Labour lose both Palmerston North and Port Hills, it would be Andrew Little looking anxiously at the wasted vote level, while Iain Lees-Galloway wouldn’t make it from the list; Ruth Dyson in Port Hills of course isn’t on the list.)
National, meanwhile, is on 52.8%, having dropped 1.4%.
Ipsos may overstate National and understate Labour to a greater average level than any of the other major polling companies, but that’s still a horror result for Labour, in the final week of the campaign.
The Greens rise a small 0.1%, to 13%. But that provides a Labour / Greens alliance with a total bloc of just 35.4%
NZ First are well down on their other recent poll results, on just 4.4% (although that’s an increase of 0.8%). Nonetheless, Ipsos are the only polling company currently placing the party at below 5%, so NZ First won’t be unduly worried by the result.
The Conservatives rise 1.2% to 3.6%. It’s their highest Ipsos result, but it’s still well short of where they need to be at this stage in the campaign.
Of the remaining minor parties, Internet Mana are up 0.1% to 1.4%, well short of their previous highs. They’ll be hoping that Kim Dotcom provides enough positive publicity on Monday evening to give them a late surge. The Maori Party are on 1.0% (up 0.7%), United Future don’t feature (having lost 0.1%), and ACT are on 0.7% (up 0.5%).
So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:
National: 48.2% (+0.1%)
Labour: 26.1% (-0.1%)
Greens: 12.6% (+0.1%)
NZ First: 5.7% (-0.1%)
Maori: 0.9% (+0.1)
United Future: 0.1% (-0.1)
ACT: 0.5% (nc)
Internet Mana: 2.0% (-0.1%)
Conservative: 3.0% (nc)
Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:
National: 60 (nc)
Labour: 32 (-1)
Greens: 16 (nc)
NZ First: 7 (nc)
Maori: 2 (nc)
United Future: 1 (nc)
ACT: 1 (nc)
Internet Mana: 3 (+1)
In the party vote stakes, the movements are only minor, with no party moving more than 0.1%. Nonetheless, it’s a new Poll of Polls low for Labour (again) and a new high for the Greens, while United Future drop back to just 0.1%.
By the tiniest of amounts, Labour loses a seat to Internet Mana, meaning there’s no change in the Left/Right balance.
The Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.