Poll of Polls update – 12 September 2014

This morning, the latest Herald Digipoll was released. It shows National down 1.5% to 48.6%, still a creditable result, while Labour rises 0.8% to 24.6%, a less than creditable result. In the last eight major polls, Labour hasn’t managed to get above 26%, which will be terrifying the list MPs and marginal electorate candidates.

The Greens rise a small 0.1%, to 11.5% – down on the 13% and 14% they received in the last Reid Research and Colmar Brunton polls over recent days.

Of the remaining minor parties, NZ First receive their best poll result this year from any polling company, hitting 8.1%, having risen 2.1%. With the last five major polls all showing the party above 5%, and with three of those five polls showing them on 7% or above, NZ First are looking extremely comfortable in their quest for a return to Parliament.

The Conservatives remain unchanged on 3.8%, while Internet Mana slump by 1.2% to drop to 2.3%. The Maori are on 0.7% (up 0.3%), and United Future lose 0.3% to a flat zero.

ACT falls 0.1% to 0.3%, a rather different result to last night’s Colmar Brunton poll which had the party on 1.2%, the highest polling the party had had from any polling company this year.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.1% (-0.1%)

Labour: 26.2% (-0.2%)

Greens: 12.5% (nc)

NZ First: 5.8% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.8% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (nc)

Conservative: 3.0% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

There’s no change in the seat share, but in terms of the parties’ vote share, National again falls, down another 0.1% after some previous excellent poll results dropped out of their time-weighting bands. It’s worse news for Labour though, hitting a new Poll of Polls low of 26.2%, thanks to a 0.2% drop.

NZ First and the Conservatives continue to climb, again hitting new Poll of Polls highs for the third update in a row.

The Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.


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