Poll of Polls update – 11 September 2014

This evening, we’ve just had the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll released, with some quite interesting results.

National slump a large 4% to 46%. That places them in the danger zone, where David Cunliffe could potentially form a coalition, albeit one involving the Greens, NZ First, Internet Mana and the Maori Party.

Labour drops too, down 1% to just 25%. Yet another poll, yet another bad result for Labour.

The Greens are the big movers, up 3% to 14%, a result they’ll be more than happy with.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First remains on 7%, comfortably above the 5% threshold, while the Conservatives climb 1.1% to 4%. It’s yet another good poll for the Conservatives, but they’re still awaiting a result that puts them over 5%.

ACT also have some significant movement, going from 0.1% to 1.2%. That’s the first poll this year that has had them above 1%, and it’s ever so close to bringing in party leader Jamie Whyte.

Internet Mana slump 1% to 1.4%, while the Maori Party rise 0.6% to 0.8%. United Future double their support, going from 0.1% 0.2%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.2% (-0.2%)

Labour: 26.4% (nc)

Greens: 12.5% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 5.6% (+0.1%)

Maori: 0.8% (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (+0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (nc)

Conservative: 2.9% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 16 (+1)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (-1)

In terms of the parties’ vote share, National continues to slump; from a high point of 50.4% a month and a half ago, they’ve now dropped a full 2%. Those lost voters aren’t going to Labour though, who remain static on their low point of 26.4%.

Instead, the support seems to be flowing to NZ First and the Conservatives, both of whom continue to creep up, both reaching new Poll of Polls highs.

Seat-wise, the slight rise of the Greens, who also achieve a Poll of Polls high, sees them stealing a seat from Internet Mana, who remain stalled at 2.1%, all momentum currently lost.

The Right bloc remains on a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, meaning National could continue to govern with the support of both United Future and ACT.

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