Poll of Polls update – 10 September 2014

This evening, we’ve had the latest 3News Reid Research poll released. It’s not great news for National, although they’re slightly up, but it’s necessarily great news for the Left, who are also up.

National climb 0.3% to 46.7%. It’s not a great result, given their latest results from other polling companies that have had them above 50%, but they’ll be glad to be on the increase.

Labour increases 0.2% to 26.1%. It’s an increase… Nonetheless, it’s yet another poll that places them below their 2011 election result. 2011 was Labour’s nadir; they’re looking increasingly likely that David Cunliffe will lead them to a new low. In fact, of the last dozen major polls, ten have had Labour below their 2011 election result.

The Greens were up 0.4% to 13%. Although a Labour/Greens bloc may be up, but that still leaves them more than 7% behind the National Party.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First rises 0.1%% to 5.9%, keeping them comfortably above the 5% threshold, while the Conservatives climb 0.5% to a new high of 4.7% (in fact, a new high from any major poll, let alone the Reid Research).

Internet Mana stall on 1.7%, as do United Future on 0.1%. Meanwhile the Maori Party drop 0.7% to 1.3%, while ACT loses half their support, dropping 0.3% to end up on 0.4% support.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.4% (-0.3%)

Labour: 26.4% (-0.1%)

Greens: 12.4% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 5.5% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.9% (+0.1%)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.4% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 2.8% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

Following the Maori TV poll of the Tamaki Makaurau electorate showing the Maori Party candidate 1% ahead of the Labour candidate, I’ve had to consider whether I amend the Poll of Polls to show the Maori Party winning three electorate seats. My conclusion is that no change will be made. With the Maori Party just 1% ahead in that seat, and with 14% undecided, I’m picking the Labour Party’s superior “Get Out The Vote” machine to make the vital difference.

In terms of the parties’ vote share, National slump to their lowest vote since mid-June, while Labour drop to yet another new low, dropping 0.1% to 26.4%.

NZ First creeps up another 0.2% to 5.5%, reaching another high point in this site’s Poll of Polls this year.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives advance another 0.1% to yet another new high of their own of 2.8%. They may have reached their high point this evening of 4.7%, but the Reid Research poll is the only own putting them above 4%, let alone even close to 5%.

Seat-wise, there’s no change. The Right bloc remains on a total of 63 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. The supposed “Kingmakers” – NZ First and the Maori Party – hold a total of 9 seats.


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