No surprises in Ikaroa Rawhiti. Except that Mana aren’t higher.

Maori TV have been working their way through their polling of the seven Maori seats. There’ve been some surprises, namely the Maori Party being ahead (albeit by a nose) in Te Tau Hauauri, and Te Ururoa Flavell holding a 29% lead in Wairiki.

The most recent poll result is for the Ikaroa Rawhiti electorate. Unsurprisingly, Labour are convincingly out in front in both the party and electorate votes. The electorate vote  results in the Maori TV poll were:

  • Labour (Meka Whaitiri) – 37%
  • Mana (Te Hamua Nikora) – 21%
  • Maori Party (Marama Fox) – 18%
  • Greens (Henare Kani) – 6%

In the party vote, the results are as follows:

  • Labour – 45%
  • Maori Party – 14%
  • Internet Mana – 13%
  • National – 10%
  • NZ First – 10%
  • Greens – 8%

As a resident of Gisborne, Ikaroa Rawhiti is my local Maori seat, and I have to say I’m surprised that Mana’s candidate, Te Hamua Nikora, isn’t closer to Meka Whaitiri. Throughout Gisborne, Mana signs are everywhere, while Nikora’s name has regularly featured in the local paper. In contrast, Whaitiri has largely been missing in action. I’d assumed that Nikora’s continued profile since the Ikaroa Rawhiti by-election would have produced a closer race, but it just hasn’t happened.

Interestingly though, there’s a significant disparity between Nikora’s personal vote (21%) and Internet Mana’s party vote (13%). Both the Labour and Greens candidate are polling less than their party vote (understandable for the Greens candidate, given they’re not seeking to win the electorate vote), while both the Mana and Maori Party candidates are exceeding their party’s shares of the party vote. However, Nikora’s personal vote is over a third more than Mana’s party vote share, showing that his personal support is well in excess of his party’s.

In terms of the party vote, the Maori Party will be happy. Despite Te Ururoa Flavell’s rhetoric of winning all seven Maori seats, the Maori Party must know they haven’t a hope in Ikaroa Rawhiti. But to still be coming second in the party vote, albeit only just, will be another good poll result for them.

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