Poll of Polls update – 5 September 2014

EDIT: Further updated with the One News Colmar Brunton poll, which had overlooked my attention.

Another day, another three polls, with the Herald DigipollFairfax Ipsos and One News Colmar Brunton polls being released today. All three results are good news for National, after some recent lacklustre polling, and bad news for Labour, with their lacklustre polling continuing.

In the Herald Digipoll, National fall slightly, down 0.6%, but they’re still above 50%, sitting on 50.1%. National may have fallen slightly, but so have Labour, who drop 0.3% to a terrible 23.8%. The Greens remain static on 11.4%.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First rise 1% to 6%, while the Conservatives climb 0.5% to 3.%. ACT (on 0.4%), United Future (on 0.2%) and Internet Mana (on 3.5%) all rise 0.1%. The only minor party dropping is the Maori Party, down 0.6% to 0.4%.

In the Fairfax Ipsos poll, National rises sharply, up 3.4% to 54.2%. When National dropped in the last Ipsos poll, I warned that National were simply returning to the mean, following an unnaturally high results from Ipsos. Well, National’s back up there again, bouncing around like a pinball.

And it’s another terrible result for Labour. They fall 1.8% to 24.3%, not able to scrape even 25% in either of today’s polls. The Greens rise though, up 1.1% to 12.9%. Nonetheless, their rise doesn’t offset Labour’s loss, and neither of the Greens’ poll results today are close to the 16% they recorded in the last Roy Morgan poll from a few days ago.

NZ First is on just 3.6%, having fallen 0.4%. It’s a strange result, given their run of recent polls that have had them above 5%, and especially given their 6% in today’s Digipoll.

Whereas the Digipoll had all the remaining minor parties but the Maori Party increasing their vote share, the Ipsos poll has them dropping, apart from United Future which remains static on 0.1%. The Maori Party drops 0.4% to 0.3%, ACT 0.5% to just 0.2%, Internet Mana drops 0.9% to 1.3%, and the Conservates drop 0.3% to 2.4%.

In the One News Colmar Brunton poll, National rises 2% to 50%, while Labour falls 2% to 48%. It’s the second of the three polls today in which the Greens also fall, down 1% to 11%.

NZ First are almost double what they’re on the Ipsos poll. They rise 1% to 7%, their best-equal poll result this year from all the major polls (equalling the mid-May Colmar Brunton result).

For the remainder of the minor parties, the Conservatives drop slightly (down 0.3% to 2.9%), Internet Mana make gains (up 0.8% to 2.4%), the Maori Party sags badly (down 0.4% to just 0.2%), ACT loses 0.3% to drop to 0.1%, and United Future remains steady on 0.1%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.7% (+0.2%)

Labour: 26.5% (-0.3%)

Greens: 12.3% (-0.1%)

NZ First: 5.3% (+0.1%)

Maori: 0.8% (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.4% (-0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.2% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 2.7% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

In terms of the parties’ vote share, National arrest their recent slide, increasing by 0.2%, while Labour drop to yet another new low, dropping 0.3% to 26.5%.

NZ First creeps up another 0.1%, remaining comfortably enough about the 5% threshold, with 5.3%. That’s their highest point in the Poll of Polls this year.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives continue their advance, up another 0.1% to yet another new high of 2.7%. Nonetheless, with just two weeks to go, they may have left their run a little late, especially since they’ve got above 4% in just one major poll this year.

Seat-wise, there’s no change. National’s increased share of the vote is outweighed by NZ First also increasing just enough to keep the seat that it took from National last update.

The Right therefore remains on a total of 63 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.

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