Poll of Polls update – 3 September 2014

We’ve had two polls out today, the latest Roy Morgan poll and the 3News Reid Research poll.

In the Roy Morgan poll, there’s a slump for National, down 3% to 45%. Despite National’s fall, there’s no good news for the Labour Party, who drop 1.5% to 26%. Instead, the news is overwhelmingly good for the Greens, who rise a huge 4.5% to 16%, their best Roy Morgan result in over two years.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First may be down 0.5%, but they’re still on 6%, which would see them returned to Parliament. The Conservatives climb 2.5% to 3.5% (their highest ever Roy Morgan result), while ACT is up 0.5% to 1%. There’s bad news for the Maori Party (who drop from 1% to 0.5%), United Future (who don’t even register, having dropped 0.5%), Internet Mana (who drop 1% to 1.5%).

In the Reid Research poll, National rises, up 1.4% to 46.4%. It’s a rise, but it’s still not a great result, if they don’t want to depend on NZ First or the Maori Party.

It’s worse though for Labour. They fall in both of tonight’s polls, dropping 0.5% to 25.9%. In the Reid Research poll, the Greens have no good news either, dropping 0.9% to 12.6%, a rather different result to the Roy Morgan.

For the remaining minor parties, NZ First again makes the 5% threshold, hitting 5.8% despite falling 0.5%. The Maori Party increase 1.3% to 2%, wile ACT doubles its vote from 0.3% to 0.6%. There are falls for the rest: United Future drop 0.3%, leaving them on 0.1% (although at least they’re registering, compared to the Roy Morgan); Internet Man drop 0.4% to 1.7%; and the Conservatives drop 0.4% to 4.2%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 48.5% (-0.5%)

Labour: 26.8% (nc)

Greens: 12.4% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 5.2% (nc)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.4% (+0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 2.6% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 60 (-1)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 7 (+1)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

The big news is that National loses a seat to NZ First. National has dropped 0.5% in a few days, and almost 2% in just over two weeks. It was inevitable that they’d drop during the campaign, but the drop has suddenly accelerated, which should worry National.

There’s no comfort for Labour. They’re static at 26.8%, still stuck on their worst numbers this year, and below their result at the last election.

For the minor parties, the Greens continue to rise. They’re at 12.4%, their equal highest result this year, last achieved back in mid-May.

Likewise, the Conservatives continue their rise, up another 0.2% to a new high of 2.6%. In less than two weeks, their average polling has increased 0.7% – a huge change in momentum, given the length of time they were stuck on 1.4 – 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the momentum has disappeared for Internet Mana. They fall again, after what had been an almost quarter year continued rise in support. Certainly, the recent bad headlines – Pam Corkery’s blowout, and Georgina Beyer’s attack on Kim Dotcom – won’t have helped their cause in the near future.

NZ First may not have risen, but they’ll be happy, maintaining their presence above 5%.

The Right now has a total of 62 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. With both United Future and the Maori Party providing overhang seats, National’s 60 seats means they can’t quite govern alone, but the Right bloc would still have enough seats seats to not require NZ First.

The loss of a seat from National to NZ First means though that if the Maori Party fail to hold Te Tai Hauauru, National cannot now govern alone, and would need one of either United Future or ACT.

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One comment

  1. Reblogged this on Talking Auckland and commented:
    I have warned previously about National scoring a negative 2% swing against it on Election Day for it to go back to the Opposition Benches. Looking at the poll of polls (amongst other things) National is teetering on the brink of going back.

    As Natusch has said:
    The big news is that National loses a seat to NZ First. National has dropped 0.5% in a few days, and almost 2% in just over two weeks. It was inevitable that they’d drop during the campaign, but the drop has suddenly accelerated, which should worry National.

    Big worry slipping 2% that fast and the Whaledump saga still ongoing.
    If National can not arrest that slippage soon polls have a nasty tendency to become self fulfilling prophesies especially if it galvanises voters and increases turnout above 75%.
    We are at T-Minus 17 days until E Day. And 3 months ago National were all but assured victory. Now? Some MP’s could be tasting opposition for the very first time

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