Poll of Polls update – 31 August 2014

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll has just been released, and there’s some interesting results there.

National drop 2%, down to 48%. That’s on top of the 2% they dropped in the mid-August Colmar Brunton poll.

On the left, Labour increased 2% to 28%, while the Greens went up 1% to 12%. That’s a 5% narrowing of the gap by a Labour/Greens alliance. Given the continued floundering by National in the wake of Dirty Politics, and the confident performance by David Cunliffe in the first televised leaders’ debate (which wasn’t covered by the polling window), Labour might be in line for a continued lift in subsequent polling.

For the minor parties, NZ First is up 1% to 6%, providing a clear buffer above the 5% threshold. And there’s a good results for the Conservatives, up 0.8% to 3.2%, although it’s still nowhere near the threshold.

Internet Mana slumps badly, down 2.3% to just 1.6%. Given their headlines have largely consisted of the fallout from the Pam Corkery / campaign launch debacle, the slump is not perhaps surprising.

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party drops 0.3% to 0.6%, United Future flatlines on a big round zero, and ACT are down 0.2% to 0.4%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 49.0% (-0.1%)

Labour: 26.8% (nc)

Greens: 12.2% (nc)

NZ First: 5.2% (+0.2%)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.4% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.2% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 2.4% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 61 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 6 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

There’s very little change in the various parties’ percentages. National drops slightly again, but only slightly, while Labour ceases to slide, but doesn’t climb.

NZ First hit 5.2%, giving them a little breathing space above the 5% threshold. They briefly reached 5.2% back at the end of May, before sliding quickly down to 4.5%, so they’ll be pleased to be back at their highest point with a few weeks of the campaign still to run.

The Internet Mana momentum is arrested, although there’s no great fall for them. Meanwhile the Conservatives’ incremental increase continues, although they’re not yet at the level they reached at the last election.

With no change in the allocation of seats, the Right has a total of 63 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. With both United Future and the Maori Party providing overhang seats, National’s 61 seats means they can’t quite govern alone, but the Right bloc would still have enough seats seats to not require NZ First.

If the Maori Party fail to hold Te Tai Hauauru, National governs alone.

With all of the weekend excitement over the political demise of Judith Collins, John Key will be hoping that the heat goes off his government and National’s poll ratings can be sustained. However, with summons’s issued for an 11 September inquiry into Cameron Slater’s OIA request to the SIS, who knows what twists and turns lie in wait ahead.

Given all that’s already happened this election campaign, it’s hard to see how Kim Dotcom’s supposedly explosive revelations will be anything other than a fizzer…


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