Poll of Polls update – 29 August 2014

The polls are coming thick and fast. There must be an election on…

Yesterday, we had the release of the latest Herald Digipoll, while this morning it’s the Fairfax Ipsos poll.

In the Digipoll, National are up 0.7% to 50.7%, while Labour sink further, down 1.1% to 24.1%. The Greens didn’t soak up the lost Labour support though; they dropped 1.7% to 11.4%.

NZ First just scrapes the threshold, up 0.7% to reach 5.0%. Good results were also had by the Conservatives (up 0.7% to 3.3%) and Internet Mana (up 1.3% to 3.4%).

For the remaining minor parties, the Maori Party was up 0.3% to 1.0%, United Future was down 0.2% to 0.2%, and ACT were down 0.3% to 0.3%.

Meanwhile, in the Fairfax Ipsos poll, National drops a huge 4.3% to 50.8%, while Labour gains a healthy 3.6% to 26.1%. The Greens make a small gain of 0.5% to 11.8%.

NZ First may have gained 0.6%, but that still leaves them on 4.0% and short of the 5% threshold.

The Conservatives drop back 0.7% to 2.7%, wile Internet Mana increases 0.1% to 2.2%. The Maori Party are down 0.3% to 0.7%, United Future go from a flat zero to 0.1%, while ACT increases 0.5% to 0.7%.

Ignore National’s drop and Labour’s gain in the Ipsos poll, and look at the final result. National’s 50.8% is still above the average of what the party has been polling, and it’s remarkably similar to the 50.7% they achieved in the Digipoll.

Meanwhile, Labour’s 26.1% is only slightly below what they’ve been averaging in the polls lately. It seems that the last Ipsos poll was somewhat of an outlier, placing National’s support at an inflated level, and Labour at an artificially low level. National’s increase and Labour’s decrease are likely a reversion to the mean, as we saw with the second to last Herald Digipoll.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 49.1% (nc)

Labour: 26.8% (-0.2%)

Greens: 12.2% (nc)

NZ First: 5.0% (-0.1%)

Maori: 0.9% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (+0.1%)

Internet Mana: 2.3% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 2.3% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 61 (nc)

Labour: 33 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 6 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

Although there is no change to the allocation of seats, Labour falls to another low point, dropping below 27% for the first time, while NZ First drops back slightly to sit dead on the 5% threshold.

Overall, the Right has a total of 63 seats, compared to 51 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. With both United Future and the Maori Party providing overhang seats, National’s 61 seats means they can’t quite govern alone, but the Right bloc would still have enough seats seats to not require NZ First.

So, has there been an impact for National from Dirty Politics?  Setting aside the latest 3News Reid Research poll, which had National dropping to 45%, the other three post-Dirty Politics polls have now had National on 50% or above. Labour, on the other hand, hasn’t been able to get above 26.5% in any of the four post-Dirty Politics poll.

At this stage, it would seem that National isn’t taking taking much of an electoral hit. Nonetheless, the polls have shown John Key’s standing has taken a hit, which may begin to corrode National’s support. Time’s running out though for the corrosion to occur pre-election…

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