No surprises in Te Tai Tonga poll

Native Affairs promised, prior to the election campaign, that they’d be polling all seven Maori seats this election. On Monday they released their results for the Te Tai Tonga electorate, currently held by Labour’s Rino Tirikatene. Unsurprisingly, Labour has a healthy lead in both the party and electorate vote.

In the party vote, the results were:

  • Labour – 43%
  • National – 17%
  • Maori Party – 16%
  • Greens – 10%
  • NZ First – 8%
  • Internet Mana – 6%

Meanwhile, the electorate vote results were:

  • Labour (Rino Tirikatene) – 48%
  • Maori Party (Ngaire Button) – 17%
  • Greens (Dora Langsbury) – 9%
  • Mana (Georgina Beyer) – 9%

In terms of the electorate vote, that’s a large swing against the Maori Party candidate (15%), but last election the Maori Party had gone into the campaign holding the seat, giving the party the benefit of incumbency. With a new candidate, the Maori Party has now well and truly lost their grip on the seat.

I’m surprised that Internet Mana wasn’t higher in the party vote, although I’d imagine their results would be significantly higher in Te Tai Tokerau, Waiariki and Ikaroa Rawhiti. Certainly, here in Gisborne, which falls into Ikaroa Rawhiti, there are Mana signs everywhere and a great deal of positive coverage of the Mana candidate, Te Hamua Nikora.

Returning to the Te Tai Tonga poll, I can’t seem to find any indication of the sample size. Polling of the Maori seats has traditionally been remarkably haphazard due to relatively small samples, so it would be interesting to see whether Native Affairs have upped the ante and gone for a sample of at least 500.

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