The latest Herald Digipoll has just been released, and with a polling window running from 14 August to 20 August, the entirety of the polling was completed following the release of Dirty Politics.
The results show a sharp fall of 4.9% for National. However, I’d be careful of reading too much into that. National are still on 50%, and the 4.9% drop simply reverses the sharp 4.5% increase that occurred in the last July 2014 poll. Here’s the last five Digipoll results for National:
- August 2014 – 50.0%
- July 2014 – 54.9%
- June 2014 – 50.4%
- March 2014 – 50.8%
- December 2013 – 46.8%
Put in that context, this result is more of a reversion to the mean than a sharp loss of support, given the perhaps unnaturally high result from last month. It remains to be seen whether other polls also record drops for National of such a magnitude.
For Labour, the Digipoll results aren’t good. They drop 1.3% to 25.2%, and that can’t be seen as a reversion to the mean – it’s the party’s lowest Digipoll result this year.
The Greens are the big winners, rising 3.8% to 13.7%. Unfortunately, in combination with Labour, the two main opposition parties are still a large 11.1% behind National.
For the other minor parties, NZ First drops 0.3% to 4.3%, while Internet Mana drop 0.1% to 2.1%. The remainder of the minor parties are all up. The Maori Party rises 0.2% to 0.7%, the Conservatives jump 1.4% to 2.6%, and both ACT and United Future both register, having been on zero last month, with ACT hitting 0.6% and United Future making it to 0.4% (UF’s best result in the Digipoll this year).
So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:
National: 49.7% (+0.1%)
Labour: 27.0% (-0.5%)
Greens: 12.0% (+0.2%)
NZ First: 4.9% (nc)
Maori: 1.0% (nc)
United Future: 0.2% (nc)
ACT: 0.5% (nc)
Internet Mana: 2.2% (nc)
Conservative: 1.9% (+0.1%)
Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:
National: 64 (nc)
Labour: 35 (-1)
Greens: 16 (+1)
NZ First: 0 (nc)
Maori: 1 (nc)
United Future: 1 (nc)
ACT: 1 (nc)
Internet Mana: 3 (nc)
Labour drop to a new low of 27.0%, plunging half a per cent from their previous low of 27.5%. And that means they lose a seat, which is picked up by the Greens, who move up slightly to 12.0%.
NZ First meanwhile remains steady on 4.9%, not quite able to break back over the 5% threshold.
Given that the Left bloc haven’t lost a seat to the Right bloc, the Right maintains a lead of 66 seats to 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, with National governing alone on 64 seats.