Poll of Polls update – 22 August 2014

The latest Herald Digipoll has just been released, and with a polling window running from 14 August to 20 August, the entirety of the polling was completed following the release of Dirty Politics.

The results show a sharp fall of 4.9% for National. However, I’d be careful of reading too much into that. National are still on 50%, and the 4.9% drop simply reverses the sharp 4.5% increase that occurred in the last July 2014 poll. Here’s the last five Digipoll results for National:

  • August 2014 – 50.0%
  • July 2014 – 54.9%
  • June 2014 – 50.4%
  • March 2014 – 50.8%
  • December 2013 – 46.8%

Put in that context, this result is more of a reversion to the mean than a sharp loss of support, given the perhaps unnaturally high result from last month. It remains to be seen whether other polls also record drops for National of such a magnitude.

For Labour, the Digipoll results aren’t good. They drop 1.3% to 25.2%, and that can’t be seen as a reversion to the mean – it’s the party’s lowest Digipoll result this year.

The Greens are the big winners, rising 3.8% to 13.7%. Unfortunately, in combination with Labour, the two main opposition parties are still a large 11.1% behind National.

For the other minor parties, NZ First drops 0.3% to 4.3%, while Internet Mana drop 0.1% to 2.1%. The remainder of the minor parties are all up. The Maori Party rises 0.2% to 0.7%, the Conservatives jump 1.4% to 2.6%, and both ACT and United Future both register, having been on zero last month, with ACT hitting 0.6% and United Future making it to 0.4% (UF’s best result in the Digipoll this year).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 49.7% (+0.1%)

Labour: 27.0% (-0.5%)

Greens: 12.0% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 4.9% (nc)

Maori: 1.0% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.2% (nc)

Conservative: 1.9% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 64 (nc)

Labour: 35 (-1)

Greens: 16 (+1)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

Labour drop to a new low of 27.0%, plunging half a per cent from their previous low of 27.5%. And that means they lose a seat, which is picked up by the Greens, who move up slightly to 12.0%.

NZ First meanwhile remains steady on 4.9%, not quite able to break back over the 5% threshold.

Given that the Left bloc haven’t lost a seat to the Right bloc, the Right maintains a lead of 66 seats to 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, with National governing alone on 64 seats.

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