Poll of Polls update – 20 August 2014

The latest Roy Morgan poll has just been released. The polling window runs from 4 August to 17 August, meaning that been a quarter and a third of the polling was done following the release of Nicky Hager’s Dirty Politics book. We’ll need to wait for further polling before the real impact of the book and its fallout can be seen.

The results of the Roy Morgan will undoubtedly be somewhat of a disappointment for Labour and the Greens. National is up 2% to 48%, while on the left, Labour drops 2.5% to 27.5%, and the Greens drop 0.5% to 11.5%. That’s a 9% gap between National and a Labour/Greens bloc.

The big mover of the minor parties is NZ First, up 1.5% to 6.5%. That’s the highest they’ve been in the Roy Morgan since September 2013, and it’s the party’s second highest poll result this year from any of the major polling companies.

For the other minor parties, there’s very little movement. The Maori Party falls 0.5% to 1%. The remainder are uncharged – Internet Mana on 2.5%, the Conservatives on 1%, ACT on 0.5%, and United Future on 0.5%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 49.6% (-0.1%)

Labour: 27.5% (-0.1%)

Greens: 11.8% (nc)

NZ First: 4.9% (+0.2%)

Maori: 1.0% (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (+0.1%)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.2% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 1.8% (-0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 64 (nc)

Labour: 36 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

Though there’s no change to the distribution of seats, NZ First is so very nearly back up to the 5% threshold. If they get there, six seats will disappear in total from National (losing three), Labour (two) and the Greens (one).

Currently, overall, the Right bloc maintains a lead of 66 seats to 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance, with National governing alone on 64 seats. If NZ First were to take 0.1% off National and get to the threshold, National would have 61 seats, still enough to govern alone, if only just.

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One comment

  1. Reblogged this on Talking Auckland and commented:
    I am keeping an eye on the central Elections seeming they dominate my Twitter feed as is at the moment. For me I am keeping a close eye on the “Government (or Economy) is heading in the right direction” numbers as they can give an insight to more deeper down feelings of the electorate.

    Put it this way while some consider that particular aspect to the realm of Political Junkie or Wankery status, no government has survived rather long when that Right Direction number hits below 50 and sits that way for a sustained period.

    For National’s sake that 7 point drop in that particular aspect better be the last…

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