Poll of Polls update – 17 August 2014

One News and 3News are back to going head-to-head with their poll results, releasing their respective Colmar Brunton and Reid Research poll this evening. Both show National down – dropping 2% to 50% in the Colmar Brunton, and 1.9% in the Reid Research.

Labour’s results across the two polls are in stark contrast to each other – down 2% to 26% in the Colmar  Brunton, but up 2.3% to 29% in the Reid Research.

The Greens rise in both polls – up 1% in the Colmar Brunton to 11%, and up 0.6% in the Reid Research to 13%.

For the minor parties, the big story in the Colmar Brunton poll is the Internet Mana Party, up 1.9% to 3.9% – a result that would see them pick up four MPs. Good news too for NZ First, who hit 5% after gaining 0.6%. The Conservatives also gain, up 0.7% to 2.4%, while the Maori party are up 0.3% to 0.9%. There’s not such good news for ACT or United Future – ACT drops 0.2% to 0.6%, while United Future fails to register.

In the Reid Research poll, it’s a different story for Internet Mana – down 0.3% to 2.0%. Likewise, NZ First fails to make the 5% threshold, although they’re close on 4.6%, having gained 0.3%. The Conservatives drop 0.2% to 2.5%, while the Maori Party drops 0.3% to 0.8%. ACT rises 0.2% to a meagre 0.3%, while United Future remains steady on an even more meagre 0.2%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 49.7% (-0.6%)

Labour: 27.6% (+0.1%)

Greens: 11.8% (+0.1%)

NZ First: 4.7% (+0.1%)

Maori: 1.0% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 2.1% (+0.2%)

Conservative: 1.9% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 64 (-1)

Labour: 36 (+1)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

During the last few updates, National and Labour have been busy trading seats with each other, and this update is more of the same. After dropping 0.6%, National lose a seat, while Labour picks it up, having made a small gain of just 0.1%.

The Conservatives continue to climb, up from 1.5% at the end of July to their current 1.9%. However, there’s still a hell of a lot of improvement to be done if they’re going to have a hope of getting close to the 5% threshold.

Likewise, Internet Mana continues to climb too, up another 0.2%. Since the merger of Internet and Mana was announced, their collective average polling has risen from 1.1% in early June to 2.1% today. Compare that to the Maori Party, who were on 1.2% in early June and are now on 1.0%, and it’s obvious which of the two parties has the momentum.

That means that overall, the Right bloc falls back to a total of 66 seats, compared to 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.

Of course, both of the two polls released tonight had a polling range that ended the day before the release of Dirty Politics, so it remains to be seen what impact Hager’s book has. As I’ve predicted, the impact won’t be much.


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