Poll of Polls update 15 August 2014

The latest Fairfax Ipsos poll was released this morning, and it’s another great result for National, who increase 0.3% to 55.1%. Meanwhile, Labour and the Greens fail to muster even 35% between them, with Labour dropping 2.4% to 22.5% and the Greens dropping 1.1% to 11.3%.

That’s the second highest National’s been in any major poll this year, while it’s the worst result Labour’s had this year. Mind you, National’s best result (56.6%) was also from a Fairfax Ipsos poll, while Labour’s second worst result (23.2%) was from the same poll, so that might perhaps tell you something about Ipsos’ bias in relation to the rest of major polling companies.

For the minor parties, the major mover is the Conservatives, up 2.1% to 3.4%. That’s their best poll result this year from any polling company, although it’s still some way short of that magical 5%. Nonetheless, they’re tied with NZ First, who rise 0.8%. Being even with Colin Craig will undoubtedly fail to make Winston Peters a happy fellow…

Internet Mana is sitting on 2.1%. They’re now getting above 2% regularly, although they have yet to break past 2.5% in any poll. The Maori Party gains 0.1% to reach 1.0%, while ACT doubles its support from 0.1% to 0.2%, and United Future loses what little support it had, dropping from 0.2% to a flat 0%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 50.3% (+0.2%)

Labour: 27.5% (-0.2%)

Greens: 11.7% (-0.2%)

NZ First: 4.6% (nc)

Maori: 1.0% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (-0.1%)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.9% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 1.7% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 65 (+1)

Labour: 35 (-1)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 3 (nc)

There’s some interesting movement, both in the poll result and seat allocations.

Poll result-wise, the gains and losses from the last update are essentially reversed. National climbs back up above the 50.0% mark, while Labour drops back down to its low of 27.5%. United Future, having briefly hit 0.2%, sag back down to a miserable 0.1%.

Seat-wise, Labour loses a seat to National, while Internet Mana keep the seat they gained last update from the Maori Party.

That means that overall, the Right bloc rises to a total of 67 seats, compared to just 53 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. David Cunliffe will be praying that Labour gets some sort of Dirty Politics bounce…


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