Poll of Polls update – 30 July 2014

So the latest One News Colmar Brunton poll came out on Sunday. I was up in Tauranga, preparing for a trial, which meant no blogging (plus, it’s remarkably difficult to update a Poll of Polls and then blog about it, when all you have is a mobile phone, smart as that mobile phone may be).

The results are days old, so I won’t bother to recap them (suffice it to say that National gets over 50% – again; and Labour gets under 30% – again). However, given that I’m now back in Gisborne, seated in front of a computer, I thought I’d at least update the Poll of Polls with the Colmar Brunton results.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls looks now:

National: 50.4% (+0.4%)

Labour: 27.5% (-0.2%)

Greens: 11.9% (-0.2%)

NZ First: 4.6% (nc)

Maori: 1.0% (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.8% (nc)

Conservative: 1.5% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 65 (+1)

Labour: 35 (-1)

Greens: 16 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

Despite getting 28% in the latest Colmar Brunton poll, Labour falls yet again, thanks to the decreased time-weighting of some of the party’s more positive poll results. They continue on their slide towards 27%. On the other side of the coin, National continues its surge, breaching the 50% barrier for the first time. That means National gains a seat at Labour’s expense.

The only movement among the minor parties is a 0.2% drop for the Greens (back below 12%, but still keeping, if only just, the extra MP they gained in the last Poll of Polls update) and a 0.1% drop for the Maori Party.

The Conservatives remain on 1.5%, well below the 2% that National would lose if it struck a deal with Colin Craig, according to National’s internal polling. Understandably, National has rejected the prospect of a deal, but that’s for a further post…

Overall, the Right bloc now has a more than comfortable 67 seats in total, compared to just 53 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. Given that Winston Peters has put a hoodoo on working with Internet Mana, the Left’s position looks even more precarious.


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