Poll of Polls update – 20 July 2014

Two more polls out today; two more terrible results for the Left. The Herald Digipoll was released this morning, and the 3News Reid Research poll this evening. As with almost every poll for the last two months, they show National governing alone and Labour sitting below 30%.

The Herald Digipoll has National up 4.5% to 54.9%, while Labour slumps 4% to 26.5% and the Greens drop 0.8% to 9.9%. NZ First is up 1%, but still below the threshold on 4.6%. For the remainder of the minor parties, Internet Mana rise 0.8% to 2.2%, the Conservatives drop 0.3% to 1.2%, the Maori Party drops 0.3% to 0.5%, and ACT and United Future both fail to register in the slightest, ACT having lost 0.7% and United Future having lost 0.1%.

The 3News Reid Research poll holds slightly better news for the left, but only slightly. National drops 0.3% to 49.4%, while Labour drops 0.6% to 26.7% and the Greens lose 0.3% to 12.4%. NZ First rises 0.7% to 4.3% (again failing to reach the threshold). The Conservatives drop 0.1% to 2.7%, Internet Mana climb 0.5% to 2.3%, and the Maori Party drops 0.4% to 1.1%. The news ain’t great for ACT or United Future, with UF on 0.2% (up 0.2%) and ACT on 0.1% (down 0.3%), but it’s got to be better than their Digipoll result…

So here’s how the Poll of Polls now looks:

National: 50.0% (+0.2%)

Labour: 27.7% (-0.4%)

Greens: 12.1% (nc)

NZ First: 4.6% (nc)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (-0.1%)

Internet Mana: 1.8% (+0.2%)

Conservative: 1.5% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 64 (nc)

Labour: 36 (nc)

Greens: 16 (+1)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (-1)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

Labour just keep on falling. It’s just a month ago that I was noting the party was dangerously close to dropping below the 30% line. That became the 29% line, then the 28% line, and now they’re seemingly set on working their way down towards 27%. Conversely, National has now reached exactly 50%.

NZ First and the Conservatives remain stagnant, with both parties undoubtedly hoping for a poll boost following their respective conferences this weekend. The two parties’ leaders have certainly had the lions share of positive publicity over the last few days.

In terms of seats in Parliament, minuscule shifts in the Greens’ and Maori Party’s party vote mean that the Greens snaffle an additional MP off the Maori Party, leaving Te Ururoa Flavell as his party’s lone voice.

Overall, that still leaves the right bloc with a comfortable 66 seats in total, compared to 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.


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