Poll of Polls update – 17 July 2014

Fresh on the heels of the latest Roy Morgan poll last night, Fairfax Ipsos has just revealed it’s latest poll. Labour may be higher in the Ipsos poll (up 1.7% to 24.9%) compared to the 23.5% they received in the Roy Morgan, but news for the left overall is worse in the Ipsos poll. The Greens rise 0.5% to 12.4%, but that still leaves a collective Labour/Greens bloc a massive 17.5% adrift of National, which is down 1.7%, but still on 54.8%.

For the minor parties, the good news for NZ First from the Roy Morgan is vaporised in the Ipsos poll, with the party dropping 0.6% to 2.6%. ACT collapses, losing 0.6% to just 0.1%, beaten even by United Future, who rise from 0% to 0.2%.  The Conservatives rise 0.4%, but that still leaves them on just 1.3%. The Maori Party makes a modest gain of 0.2% to 0.9%, while Mana remains unchanged on 1.2% (oddly, the Ipsos poll appears to differentiate between Mana and Internet Mana, but doesn’t provide any indication of total support for the Internet Mana alliance, which had been on 2.1% in the last Ipsos poll).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls now looks:

National: 49.8% (+0.4%)

Labour: 28.1% (-0.3%)

Greens: 12.1% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 4.6% (-0.2%)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.6% (-0.1%)

Internet Mana: 1.6% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 1.4% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 64 (+1)

Labour: 36 (-1)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

There’s a further collapse of Labour’s vote. Since mid-March, Labour have dropped from a Poll of Poll rating of 33.3% to today’s 28.1%. Meanwhile the Greens have moved from a mid-March low of 10.5% to 12.1%, just shy of their high this year of 12.4%.

For National, after dropping to a low of 46.0% in mid-May, the party is now on a high of 49.8%, easily governing alone thanks to the wasted vote created by NZ First and the Conservatives. The end result? Labour loses a seat to National.

To put Labour’s result in context, if the party received it’s Poll of Polls result of 28.1% on election day, I calculate that Labour will lose Carol Beaumont, and new candidate Priyanca Radhakrishnan will just miss out on a place. That’s assuming that Labour hold Palmerston North. If Iain Lees-Galloway loses to Jono Naylor, Ms Radkarishnan just scrapes in, while Mr Lees-Galloway is on the way out.

NZ First, after surging yesterday on the back of 6% Roy Morgan result, lose almost all of the ground, back down to 4.6%. Frankly, the polls have been all over the place with NZ First, with the Roy Morgan result being the party’s second highest rating this year, compared to today’s Ipsos result being their lowest of the year.

Overall, the right bloc now holds a huge 66 seats in total, compared to just 53 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance. The left-right gap is now 10.1%, the largest it’s been this year, having ballooned out from a low of 5.0% in mid-May when National was at it’s lowest ebb.

All told, if the left bloc keep up this level of polling, they’re staring down the barrel of a damn good kicking (to mix my metaphors). The left may be praying that the election campaign brings with it the inevitable drop in support for the governing party, but that may be of little comfort if Labour and the Greens don’t pick up a decent proportion of National’s current support. If any voters National sheds simply go in the direction of NZ First or the Conservatives, Labour and the Greens will be far too far adrift to be close to cobbling together a viable coalition.

At the very least, Labour needs to look long and hard at its level of party discipline, while the left as a whole needs to concentrate on presenting the image of a coalition government-in-waiting.

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