Poll of Polls update – 16 July 2014

The latest Roy Morgan poll has just been released, and it’s dreadful news for the left as a whole, although the Greens will be happy with their party vote. National surge 3% to govern alone with 51%. Labour drops 4.5% to an horrific 23.5% (23.5% in the Roy Morgan?!), while the Greens pick up 3% to 15%. At a collective 38.5%, that puts the two main opposition parties a 12.5% behind National.

For the minor parties, it’s good news for NZ First, who are up 0.5% to 6%. Internet Mana drops 1% to 1.5%, while the Maori Party and Act both drop 0.5% to 1% and 0.5% respectively. Support for the Conservatives remains static on 1%, while United Future registers for the first time in six major polls with 0.5%.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls now looks:

National: 49.4% (+0.1%)

Labour: 28.4% (-0.5%)

Greens: 11.9% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 4.8% (+0.3%)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.7% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.7% (nc)

Conservative: 1.4% (-0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 63 (nc)

Labour: 37 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

Labour’s collapse continues, which will be scaring the hell out of a good few MPs relying on list spots or marginal seats to return to Parliament.

NZ First surges back upwards toward the 5% threshold, reversing the downward trend caused by a run of sub-4% poll results.

Overall, the right bloc continues to hold a huge 65 seats in total, compared to just 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.


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