Poll of Polls update – 3 July 2014

Note: This is a correction of an early release of this post. Earlier, WordPress eradicated the intended post and published an earlier Poll of Polls update under the new heading. Many thanks to Julian Haworth for pointing this out. The intended post follows:

The latest Roy Morgan poll has just been released. There’s a modicum of good news for the left, with National dropping 1.5 points, although they remain on 48%. Labour and the Greens remain static on 28% and 12% respectively. At a collective 40%, that puts the two main opposition parties a clear 8% behind National.

For the minor parties, it’s good news for NZ First, who are up 1.5% to 5.5%, clearing the 5% threshold for the first time in six main polls. Internet Mana remains unchanged at 2.5%, while the Maori Party and Act both rise 0.5% to 1.5% and 1% respectively. The Conservatives drop 0.5% to 1%, while United Future again fails to register (for the fifth major poll in a row!).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls now looks:

National: 49.3% (nc)

Labour: 28.9% (-0.1%)

Greens: 11.7% (-0.1%)

NZ First: 4.5% (nc)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.7% (+0.1%)

Internet Mana: 1.7% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 1.5% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 63 (nc)

Labour: 37 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

Overall, the changes to party votes are only 0.1% for Labour, the Greens, ACT and Internet Mana.

Labour drops below 29% for the first time, to 28.9%. They’ll be hoping that the party’s upcoming conference results in a flurry of positive publicity, boosting their sagging poll ratings.

NZ First still remains half a per cent away from the magical 5% threshold. Despite their good Roy Morgan result, adjustments for in house bias mean that the party’s Poll of Poll result doesn’t move. Winston Peters has largely been out of the limelight for the last few weeks, and he, like Labour, will be hoping for some publicity, although for Peters any publicity is good publicity.

Overall, the right bloc continues to hold a huge 65 seats in total, compared to just 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.

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