Poll of Polls update – 29 June 2014

Having gone head to head with TV3 for the last few poll cycles, One News have gone a few days later than their competition this time, with their Colmar Brunton poll coming out this evening – 3News having run their latest poll two days ago. Like the 3News poll, there’s no good news for Labour (as with countless recent polls). National may have dropped 1%, but that still leaves them on 50%, while Labour also drops 1% to 29%, offset by the Greens rising 1% to 12%.

For the minor parties, it’s another bad news poll for NZ First, who drop 1% to 3.8%, remaining below the 5% threshold. Internet Mana rise 1.2% to 2.3%, which would likely bring in three MPs; the Maori Party rises 0.4% to 1.2%, which would likely provide Te Ururoa Flavell with a Parliamentary colleague; ACT drops 0.1% to 0.7%, leaving David Seymour as the party’s sole voice; the Conservatives drop 0.3% to 1%; while United Future fails to register (for the fourth major poll in a row).

So here’s how the Poll of Polls now looks:

National: 49.3% (+0.1%)

Labour: 29.0% (-0.1%)

Greens: 11.8% (nc)

NZ First: 4.5% (nc)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.6% (nc)

Conservative: 1.5% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 63 (nc)

Labour: 37 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

Overall, there’s very little change, with National and Labour shifting by just 0.1%, and all other parties remaining unchanged. That’s because the latest Colmar Brunton poll really isn’t that different from the previous Poll of Poll standings. In fact, the polls have been remarkably consistent lately, showing National governing alone, and a Labour / Greens combination lagging with an approximate 10% deficit.

I noted last update that Labour continues to slide, perilously close to dipping below 29%. Well, they’re now bang on 29%, about as perilously close to dropping below 29% as you can get.

NZ First arrests its slide. It’s now six polls in a row that have had them below the 5% threshold, with four of those five polls placing the party below 4%, but my bias correction to Colmar Brunton’s poll prevents NZ First from sliding further.

Overall, the right bloc continues to hold a huge 65 seats in total, compared to just 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.

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