Poll of Polls update – 27 June 2014

TV3’s Reid Research poll was released yesterday, and the news remains fairly dire for the Left. National may have dropped 0.6%, but they’re still sitting pretty on 49.7%. Meanwhile, Labour drops 2.2% to 27.3%, offset by the Greens rising 2.5% to 12.7%.

For the smaller parties, NZ First drops 2% to 3.6%, well below the 5% threshold. Internet Mana rise 1% to 1.8%, which would bring in Laila Harre, the Maori Party rises 0.9% to 1.5%, ACT drops 0.1% to a measly 0.4%, while United Future fails to register at all. The Conservative Party will be pleased though – they rise 0.5% to 2.8%, their best poll result this year.

So here’s how the Poll of Polls now looks:

National: 49.2% (-0.1%)

Labour: 29.1% (-0.3%)

Greens: 11.8% (+0.3%)

NZ First: 4.5% (-0.1%)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.6% (-0.1%)

Internet Mana: 1.6% (+0.2%)

Conservative: 1.5% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 63 (nc)

Labour: 37 (-1)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 2 (+1)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

Readers may look quizzically at National’s result – they poll 49.7% in the latest TV3 poll, but drop 0.1% to 49.2%. The Poll of Polls adjusts for the average in-house bias of the polling companies, meaning that the TV3 bias-corrected result for National is just below 48%, resulting in a slight decrease in National’s fortunes. Nonetheless, they remain on 63 seats, comfortably governing alone.

Labour continues to slide, perilously close to dipping below 29%. Of the last six major polls released, the party has been above 30% just once, while the TV3 poll is the third poll in a row to put Labour at 28% or less.

NZ First also continues to slide. Five polls in a row have now had them below the 5% threshold, with three of those five polls placing the party below 4%.

Overall, the right bloc holds a huge 65 seats in total, compared to just 54 for a Labour, Greens and Internet Mana alliance.

Labour appears set to renew its focus on policy. Given the way the party’s focus on donations scandals and “cash for access” has blown up spectacularly in its face, a concerted policy push is needed to try and reverse the current terrible run of polling for Labour.

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