Poll of Polls update – 19 June 2014

As if David Cunliffe wasn’t already under enough pressure, the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll was released this morning, and it’s awful for Labour. Labour falls 6.3% to a horrible 23.2%, while National gains a massive 8.9% to 56.6%, well and truly governing alone.

For the minor parties, there’s nothing much to smile about either. The Greens lose 0.9% to a still creditable 11.9%, but with Labour dropping so dramatically, they would surely have expected to have hoovered up some of that support. NZ First drops 0.5% to 3.6% – the third major poll in a row to show the party falling back below the 5% threshold. The Maori Party are down 1.2% to 0.7%, leaving them with just a sole MP, assuming they hold Waiariki. ACT are down 0.2% to 0.7% – yet another poll to show the party’s leader failing to make it into Parliament. The Conservative Party are down 0.7% to 0.9%, making them barely worth bothering about for John Key, and United Future doesn’t even register. The only minor party that might look at the poll with any comfort is Internet Mana, which picks up a combined 2.1%, which would likely bring them a third MP, should Hone Harawira hold Te Tai Tokerau.

So how does the Poll of Polls look now?

National: 49.2% (+0.8%)

Labour: 29.6% (-0.7%)

Greens: 11.5% (+0.3%)

NZ First: 4.7% (-0.3%)

Maori: 1.1 (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.7% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.3% (+0.2%)

Conservative: 1.4% (-0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 63 (+4)

Labour: 38 (+1)

Greens: 15 (+1)

NZ First: 0 (-6)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

With NZ First falling back below the 5% threshold, National would receive 63 seats, governing alone for the first time in this Poll of Polls. Labour pick up an extra seat, despite dropping below 30% for the first time, but a Labour, Greens and Mana coalition would have just 55 seats.

If one takes 0.3% from National, giving it to NZ First and getting them over the line, Labour would instead drop to 36 seats, while National would have 60, needing just one of either ACT or United Future to govern.

What’s interesting is the change in language from David Cunliffe over the level he considers Labour’s support is actually at. Despite previous polls showing Labour bouncing around just above or below 30%, Cunliffe has held the line that Labour was actually at around 34%. This morning, he described the party’s support as being either late-twenties or early-thirties, an implicit acceptance that Labour’s own polling is occasionally putting the party at under 30%.


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