Poll of Polls update – 19 June 2014 (Part 2)

So, after I’d published my Poll of Polls update for the day, Roy Morgan then has to go and release its latest poll results (which I should have expected, if I’d checked the time that had elapsed since their last poll). Compared to the Fairfax Ipsos poll released this morning, it’s okay reading for Labour, but that’s not saying much.

National drop 3%, but that still leaves the party on 49.5%. Labour drops as well, down 1% to 28%. If it weren’t for Labour’s 23.2% in the Ipsos poll this morning, this Roy Morgan result would have been their worst from any of the major polls this year.

There’s good news for the Greens though, bouncing back 3% to 12%. Not such good news for NZ First, dropping 0.5% to 4%, making this the fourth major poll in a row showing them under the 5% threshold.

For the remainder of the minor parties, the Maori Party is down 0.5% to 1%, ACT drops 0.5% to 0.5%, United Future fails to register (again), the Conservatives are up 0.5% to 1.5%, and the Internet Mana Party gets 2.5%.

There’s little change in the Poll of Polls since this morning’s calculation:

National: 49.3% (+0.1%)

Labour: 29.4% (-0.2%)

Greens: 11.5% (nc)

NZ First: 4.6% (-0.1%)

Maori: 1.1% (nc)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.7% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.4% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 1.4% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 63 (nc)

Labour: 38 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 0 (nc)

Maori: 1 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (nc)

It’s grim reading for the left, with National governing alone and a yawning 9.2% between the left and right blocs. Even assuming that the Conservative Party’s 1.4% will be wasted (presuming that National don’t do a deal with Colin Craig), that’s still a large gap, the largest it’s been this year.


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