Poll of Polls update – 17 June 2014

The latest Herald Digipoll has just been released, and it’s the fourth major poll in a row to show National governing alone. National drops slightly, but are still sitting on a comfortable 50.4%, while Labour can at least console itself that it’s gone up 1% to 30.5%, escaping the dreaded twenties. The Greens take a significant hit, down 2.4% to 10.7%. That gives National a significant 9.2% lead over a combined Labour/Greens bloc.

For the other minor parties, NZ First and the Conservatives stay steady on 3.6% and 1.5% respectively, quite some way below the 5% threshold. ACT falls 0.1% to 0.7%, nowhere close to getting a second MP, while United Future actually registers for once, sitting sadly on 0.1%.

This is the first major poll conducted entirely since the formation of the combined Internet Mana Party. They’re on 1.4%, enough to bring in Annette Sykes Laila Harre, but considering the huge publicity they’ve had, it’s hardly an inspiring result.

So how does the Poll of Polls look now?

National: 48.4% (+0.5%)

Labour: 30.3% (-0.3%)

Greens: 11.2% (-0.3%)

NZ First: 5.0% (nc)

Maori: 1.1 (-0.1%)

United Future: 0.1% (nc)

ACT: 0.7% (nc)

Internet Mana: 1.1% (nc)

Conservative: 1.5% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:

National: 59 (nc)

Labour: 37 (nc)

Greens: 14 (nc)

NZ First: 6 (nc)

Maori: 1 (-1)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Internet Mana: 2 (+1)

Unfortunately for the Maori Party, they drop just enough that their second seat disappears, snared by the tiniest margin by Internet Mana.

With a one seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 61 seats, to make a governing majority.

For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Internet Mana have 53 seats, short of a majority by one seat, even with NZ First and the Maori Party.

Labour drop to a new low for the fourth Poll of Polls update in a row. Conversely, National is the highest they’ve been this year. That’s a set of trends that should be extremely worrying for the Labour party. The left-right gap may narrow (and even be in the left’s favour) in the occasional poll, but Labour’s poll ratings have simply remained stalled. The party hasn’t got above 32% in the last fourteen polls, and you have to go back seven polls to find a result where Labour got over 31.5%.

To put that in perspective, Matthew Hooton noted on Radio NZ’s Nine to Noon programme yesterday, with no dissension from Mike Williams, that if Labour drops below 31% on election day then Kelvin Davis doesn’t make it back in on his current caucus ranking. Given this Poll of Polls update puts Labour at 30.3%, Mr Davis currently has no incentive to let Hone Harawira win Te Tai Tokerau.

EDIT: Laila Harre would make it in as second Internet Mana MP, unless Annette Sykes wins Wairiki.

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