The latest Roy Morgan poll has just been released, and it’s a shocker for the Left, with not a jot of good news to be found. National leaps 7% to 52.5%, while Labour drops to 29% and the Greens lose a huge 4.5% to drop to 9%. That gives National a massive 14.5% lead over a combined Labour/Greens bloc.
We’ve now had a baker’s dozen of polls in a row in which Labour have not polled over 32%. In five of those thirteen polls, Labour haven’t managed to break 30%. Labour have now been below 30% in one third of the last dozen polls, and of those dozen polls the highest they’ve been is 32%.
So what of the minor parties in the Roy Morgan?
The bad news continues for the left. NZ First doesn’t make the 5% threshold, sitting on 4.5%, while a combined Internet Mana alliance gets just 1%, with both the Internet Party and Mana sitting on a paltry 0.5% each. Despite all the recent headlines, and the launch of the Internet Mana Party featuring in the second half of the Roy Morgan polling cycle, Mana has gone backwards, down 0.5%, while the Internet Party has gone nowhere. It remains to be seen whether the next polling cycle does them any favours.
For National’s potential coalition partners, both the Maori Party and ACT are up 0.5% to 1.5% and 1% respectively, while there’s no change for United Future, who are a dead marine on 0% (sadly for Peter Dunne, that’s the fourth major poll in a row showing his party flatlining on zero). Finally, the Conservative Party are steady on 1% – hardly making waves.
So how does the Poll of Polls look now?
National: 47.9% (+1.0%)
Labour: 30.6% (-0.2%)
Greens: 11.5% (-0.5%)
NZ First: 5.0% (-0.2%)
Maori: 1.2 (+0.1%)
United Future: 0.1% (nc)
ACT: 0.7% (+0.1%)
Internet Mana: 1.1% (new, although previous combined total for the parties was 1.2%)
Conservative: 1.5% (nc)
Based on those percentages, the parties are predicted to win the following number of seats:
National: 59 (+1)
Labour: 37 (-1)
Greens: 14 (-1)
NZ First: 6 (nc)
Maori: 2 (+1)
United Future: 1 (nc)
ACT: 1 (nc)
Internet Mana: 1 (new, although unchanged from the parties combined previous total)
With a one seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 61 seats, to make a governing majority. Essentially, the current coalition could simply roll on.
For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Internet Mana have 52 seats, unable to cobble together a majority, even with NZ First and the Maori Party.
Labour drop to a new low for the third Poll of Polls update in a row, continuing their descent towards 30%.