Poll of Polls update – 22 May 2014

The new Roy Morgan poll was released today and, in what is becoming a bit of a habit with Roy Morgan polls, the lead has changed yet again. National’s up 3% to 45.5%, just ahead of the combined Labour/Greens vote, with Labour back out of the 20s on 30.5% and the Greens down slightly to a still respectable 13.5%.

Labour may be up, but it’s still not great news. Last Poll of Polls update, I noted that of the last ten major polls released, Labour had been below 30% in three polls, and in only one of those ten polls had they been above 32%. Well, now, of the last ten major polls released, Labour has still been below 30% in three of them, but they haven’t been above 32% in any of them. That’s not a good run of form.

Of the other minor parties, there’s very little change. NZ First remains steady on 6%, the Maori and Mana Parties remain on 1%, and Act is steady on 0.5%. The Conservatives make a slight increase from 0.5% to 1%, while the Internet Party drops 1% to 0.5%. United Future disappears entirely, going from a desultory 0.5% to an even sadder 0%.

So how does the Poll of Polls look now?

National: 46.1% (+0.1%)

Labour: 31.1% (-0.2%)

Greens: 12.4% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 5.1% (+0.1%)

Maori: 1.3 (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (-0.1%)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Mana: 0.7% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 1.5% (-0.2%)

Internet Party: 0.5% (nc)

Based on those percentages, there’s no change in the seat predictions, which remain:

National: 57 (nc)

Labour: 38 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 6 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

With a one seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 59 seats, two short of the minimum required to govern. However, with the Maori Party’s two seats, they’ve got a majority.

For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Mana have 54 seats, require both the Maori Party and NZ First to make it over the line.

That means that it’s the Maori Party holding the balance of power, although a minuscule adjustment would result in that dubious honour being handed to Winston Peters.

It’s worth noting that the Left v Right gap is now at its lowest point this year, at 4.2% – down from a high of 7.7% in mid-March. That’s no thanks to Labour, who are at their lowest Poll of Polls rating this year. Thankfully for the Left, National have dropped just over 2% from their mid-March high of 48.3%, while the Greens have continued to climb, up from 10.9% on 11 March to 12.4% today.

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4 comments

  1. Any chance you could model a Mana/Internet Party marriage? Based on the assumption they will both bring their current polling to the union? How would that affect things?

  2. Hi Matt,

    I’ve run the numbers on a Mana Dotcom alliance, and it shows just how close things are becoming between Left & Right in the Poll of Polls.

    Using yesterday’s numbers, and assuming that Mana and the Internet Party as an alliance polled exactly the same as the sum of their individual polling, there would be no change in the number of seats. Mana Dotcom would fall ever so slightly short of taking a list seat from National.

    However, using today’s numbers (as this morning several polls decreased in weighting), Mana Dotcom increase by 0.1%, which is enough to get them two seats – Te Tai Tokerau plus one list seat. That list seat comes at National’s expense, leaving National on 57 seats. That leaves a coalition of National, UF, ACT and the Maori Party one seat short of a governing majority, meaning that NZ First holds the balance of power (although Labour would need all of the Greens, Mana, Maori and NZ First – and NZ First has ruled out working with the Maori Party…).

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