Poll of Polls update – 14 May 2014

The new Fairfax Ipsos poll was released this morning, and it’s got some quite different news for National from the last Roy Morgan poll. The entirety of the Ipsos polling was done following Maurice Williamson’s resignation and the most recent allegations against Judith Collins (polling of 1,011 people occurred between 10 and 12 May), and although National has dipped by 1.8%, the party is still sitting on a comfortable 47.6%. That compares to the last Roy Morgan, which showed a 6% free fall to 42.5%.

The bad news for Labour is that they’ve dropped more than National, losing 2.3% and falling back below 30% to 29.5%. The run of recent polls must be horribly disheartening for Labour. Of the last ten major polls released, Labour have been below 30% in three polls, and in only one of those ten polls have they been above 32%.

The Greens are the big winners in this Ipsos, up 2.7% to 12.7%. It looks suspiciously like the Greens have siphoned off several per cent of Labour’s vote.

Of the other minor parties, NZ First is up slightly, but still below the 5% threshold at 3.7%, while ACT is up slightly to 0.9% (not nearly enough to get their leader, Jamie Whyte, in to Parliament). The Internet Party appears for the first time in an Ipsos poll, on 0.6%, while the Conservatives are going nowhere fast on 1.6%.

David Cunliffe’s preferred Prime Minister rating drops 3.9% to 13.4%, but he might take some comfort from the fact that at least he’s not in single figures. Of course, that still puts him 35.2 points behind John Key…

So how does the Poll of Polls look now?

National: 46.0% (-0.4%)

Labour: 31.3% (-0.1%)

Greens: 12.2% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 5.0% (+0.1%)

Maori: 1.3 (+0.1%)

United Future: 0.3% (nc)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Mana: 0.6% (nc)

Conservative: 1.7% (nc)

Internet Party: 0.5% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 57 (-3)

Labour: 38 (-3)

Greens: 15 (nc)

NZ First: 6 (+6)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

The big movement in National and Labour’s respective tally of seats is due to NZ First regaining that vital 0.1% to hit exactly 5.0% and scrape back into Parliament. NZ First’s six seats come at the expense of three each from the major parties.

With a one seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 59 seats, two short of the minimum required to govern. However, with the Maori Party’s two seats, they’d just get over the line.

For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Mana have 54 seats, well short of a governing majority, and they’d require both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Readers may look slightly askance at National’s drop to 46.0%, despite getting 47.6% in the Ipsos poll. Bear in mind that a significant -1.85 weighting is applied to National’s Ipsos results, given that the poll on places National an average 1.85 higher than the industry average.

It’s worth noting a change in methodology, in terms of electorate contests. To date, I’ve been assuming that the Maori Party would hold Waiariki and Tariana Turia’s former seat of Te Tai Hauauru, while losing Tamaki Makaurau. However, I’m going to side with the gamblers at iPredict, who are resolutely putting their money on a Labour win in Te Tai Hauauru, meaning the Maori Party would win just a sole electorate seat – Waiariki. Under their current Poll of Polls results though, they just manage to bring in an additional list MP, meaning that they currently still hold two seats in Parliament.

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