Poll of Polls update – 7 May 2014

There’s a new Roy Morgan poll out, and the results are like a pinball machine. Last Roy Morgan was a crushing blow to the left; this time round it’s a sledgehammer to National (just like two Roy Morgans ago!). National drops a massive 6% to 42.5%, Labour climbs back into the 30s with 31%, while the Greens hit their high of the year with 14.5%.

Other interesting results from the Roy Morgan are the disintegration of the Conservative Party vote (their worst poll of the year – and that includes all polls from all major polling companies – down from 2% to just 0.5%) coupled with the rise of the Internet Party to 1.5%.

The plunge in National’s support is likely to be largely attributed to the ongoing Judith Collins saga and the recent resignation of Maurice Williamson. Certainly, that’s how Gary Morgan explains his company’s poll result. It’s worth noting, perhaps, that Mr Williamson’s resignation occurred on 1 May 2014, with the Roy Morgan polling period occurring from 12 April to 4 May. With Mr Williamson’s plight covering just four days of the two week polling period, and the Collins debacle really only reigniting properly following Williamson’s resignation, the dramatic drop in National’s fortunes should give National pause for thought.

So how does the Poll of Polls look now?

National: 46.4% (-0.3%)

Labour: 31.4% (nc)

Greens: 12.0% (+0.6%)

NZ First: 4.9% (-0.1%)

Maori: 1.2 (nc)

United Future: 0.3% (+0.1%)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Mana: 0.6% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 1.7% (-0.3%)

Internet Party: 0.4% (+0.1%)

Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 60 (+2)

Labour: 41 (+2)

Greens: 15 (+1)

NZ First: 0 (-6)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

The big movement in National and Labour’s respective tally of seats is due to NZ First dropping 0.1% to fall back under the 5% threshold. Despite NZ First polling above 5% in four of the last five polls released (three Roy Morgans and the last Colmar Brunton poll), several of the party’s most successful poll results have decreased in weighting recently, with this latest Roy Morgan not quite enough to drag it back over the line. However, it’s fair to say that the Poll of Polls is probably currently slightly understating NZ First’s share of the vote.

Nonetheless, the calculations are made based on what the Poll of Polls currently says, and with a one seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 62 seats, one more than the minimum required to govern.

For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Mana have 57 seats, well short of a governing majority.

However, if one takes 0.1% from National and gifts it to NZ First, thereby lifting them to 5.0%, things look a little different. The centre-right bloc would then have 59 seats, requiring the Maori Party’s two seats to govern. The centre-left bloc, with 55 seats, would require both the Maori Party and NZ First to govern. The Maori Party would therefore be the kingmakers.

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