Poll of Polls update – 18 April 2014

The new Roy Morgan is out, and it’s terrible news for the left, with Labour down 3.5% to 28.5% and the Greens down 1.5% to 11.5%. With National climbing a massive 5.5% to 48.5%, there’s now a yawning 8.5% gap between the National v Labour/Greens bloc.

The other interesting feature is that Mana and the Internet Party between them have 2%. That would get Annette Sykes in, and possibly a third candidate. It’s a poll result that will surely only do the proposed Mana Dotcom alliance more good than harm.

So how does the Poll of Polls look now?

National: 46.7% (+0.3%)

Labour: 31.4% (-0.5%)

Greens: 11.4% (nc)

NZ First: 5.0% (nc)

Maori: 1.2 (nc)

United Future: 0.2% (-0.1%)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Mana: 0.5% (+0.1%)

Conservative: 2.0% (nc)

Internet Party: 0.3% (+0.2%)

Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 58 (+1)

Labour: 39 (nc)

Greens: 14 (nc)

NZ First: 6 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

With a two seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 60 seats, two short of the minimum required to govern. They can get there with the help of the Maori Party, who are still projected to win two seats.

For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Mana have 54 seats. They’d still need both NZ First’s six seats and the Maori party’s two seats to form a government.

The Maori party therefore retains its role as kingmaker. Given their recent fundraiser using John Key, you’d have to assume that National would be in the driver’s seat for coalition negotiations…

The Internet Party’s slight rise is to be expected. Given that they didn’t feature in the first nine polls of the year, as those polls’ weightings decrease the Internet Party will likely to continue to rise.



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