Poll of Polls update – 13 April 2014

Previous updates of the Poll of Polls have been due to the release of a new poll, to monitor the effect of that poll. However, things change even when polls aren’t being released, as the weighting of individual polls decrease over time.

The reason for today’s Poll of Polls update is that for the first time, NZ First has hit 5%, as enough less-than-auspicious poll results for the party have dropped in weighting importance. It’s the bare minimum needed to make it into Parliament – 5.0% – but that puts Winston Peters and five other MPs back into Parliament, and changes the Poll of Polls’ political landscape.

The current Poll of Polls standings are as follows:

National: 46.4% (-0.3%)

Labour: 31.9% (+0.2%)

Greens: 11.4% (-0.3%)

NZ First: 5.0% (+0.3%)

Maori: 1.2 (nc)

United Future: 0.3% (nc)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Mana: 0.4% (nc)

Conservative: 2.0% (+0.1%)

Internet Party: 0.1% (nc)

 

Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 57 (-3)

Labour: 39 (-2)

Greens: 14 (-1)

NZ First: 6 (+6)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

With a one seat overhang, the centre-right bloc of National, United Future and ACT have a total of 59 seats, two short of the minimum required to govern. They can get there with the help of the Maori Party, who are still projected to win two seats.

For the centre-left, Labour, the Greens and Mana have 54 seats. They’d still need both NZ First’s six seats and the Maori party’s two seats to form a government.

That, of course, makes the Maori party the kingmaker. Te Ururoa Flavell has often expressed his personal preference of going with the largest party, but at the end of the day the decision rests in the Maori party membership’s hands. They will hold their huis, as they have done at previous elections, and make a call about which way to jump. With the full scale assault they’re under from Mana on their left, it is entirely conceivable that the Maori Party would walk away from National – if Labour agrees to keep policies such as Whanau Ora intact. Which Labour, I’m sure, would happily promise if it bought them the Treasury benches.

Under this sort of scenario, National strategists would undoubtedly be looking with interest as to whether East Coast Bays voters would play ball if Colin Craig were to be offered an endorsement. I wonder whether the good people of that electorate have been polled yet by a certain polling company associated with the National party?

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