Poll of Polls update – 4 April 2014

The Poll of Polls has been updated following the release of yesterday’s Roy Morgan poll.

The Roy Morgan was good news for the left, with Labour and the Greens together polling higher than National (they were level-pegging last Roy Morgan). NZ First were back over the 5% threshold, hitting 5.5%, which would allow the party to hold the balance of power. And, of course, the Internet Party registered with 0.5%.

So how does that change this site’s Poll of Polls?

National: 46.7% (-0.4%)

Labour: 31.7% (+0.1%)

Greens: 11.7% (+0.2%)

NZ First: 4.7% (nc)

Maori: 1.2 (+0.1%)

United Future: 0.3% (+0.1%)

ACT: 0.6% (nc)

Mana: 0.4% (nc)

Conservative: 1.9% (+0.1%)

Internet Party: 0.1% (nc)


Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 60 (-1)

Labour: 41 (nc)

Greens: 15 (nc)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

With the overhang dropping to one seat, National still requires one of either United Future or ACT in order to govern. Labour, the Greens and Mana are 4 seats short of the 61 seats needed to govern.

It’s not great news for National, though. The party’s trend since 18 March has been resolutely downhill from its high of 48.3%. Further, NZ First may have remained static on 4.7%, but it won’t take much for Winston Peters to breach that magical 5% threshold.



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