The Poll of Polls has been updated following the release of two major polls tonight, TV1’s Colmar Brunton and TV3’s Reid Research polls going head to head. The two polls don’t show hugely differing results for the National, Labour and the Greens, but the results have some significant differences for some of the minor parties.
The major mover in the Colmar Brunton poll is NZ First, which explodes to a massive 7%, the party’s highest result this year. In the same poll, United Future, ACT and Mana don’t even feature.
Over on TV3, the Reid Research poll shows NZ First dropping to 4.9% (from 5.7% last poll), with ACT suddenly shooting up to 1.1%. The big news in that poll was that the Internet Party shows up for the first time in any major poll, hitting 0.4%.
So how does the updated Poll of Polls look now?
National: 47.1% (-0.8%)
Labour: 31.6% (-0.1%)
Greens: 11.5% (-0.1%)
NZ First: 4.7% (+0.6%)
Maori: 1.1 (-0.1%)
United Future: 0.2% (-0.1%)
ACT: 0.6% (+0.1%)
Mana: 0.4% (nc)
Conservative: 1.8% (nc)
Internet Party: 0.1% (+0.1%)
Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:
National: 61 (nc)
Labour: 41 (nc)
Greens: 15 (nc)
Maori: 2 (nc)
United Future: 1 (nc)
ACT: 1 (nc)
Mana: 1 (nc)
With no change to the division of seats, National still requires one of either United Future or ACT in order to govern. Labour, the Greens and Mana are still stranded 5 short of the 62 seats needed to govern.
The results are deceptive though. Despite National’s coalition position remaining unchanged, with the centre-right bloc holding 63 seats and easily able to govern without even the help of the Maori party, National’s 47.1% is the lowest it has been this year in the Poll of Polls. National’s saving grace is that Labour has continued to drop with every update, from a high of 33.3% to a new low this update of 31.6%.
The big minor party news is of course that the Internet Party registers on the Poll of Polls for the first time. It’s not much, just 0.1%, but it’s finally there. Of course, herein now lies the difficulty of a Poll of Polls – just as with ACT, the Internet Party (presuming it continues to register in the upcoming major polls) will take some time to overcome the weighting effect of the numerous previous polls that showed it flatlining at 0.00%. It’s likely that the party’s Poll of Polls results will slowly creep up in the next few months, as long as it continues to record a presence in the major polls. Whether it can break even the 1% mark remains to be seen, but it’s certainly had more than its fair share of publicity lately.
And of course, NZ First is now creeping up towards that magical 5% threshold, thanks to these two good poll ratings. Up 0.6% to 4.7%, and with just shy of six months to go till election day, that’s not a bad position for Peters to be in.
So what happens if Peters makes 5%? Taking 0.1% from each of National, Labour & the Conservatives and giving it to NZ First in order to get it to the threshold, provides a large change in the numbers, giving the kingmaker role to the Maori party. National would require the Maori party’s two seats in order to govern, while Labour would require both the Maori party and NZ First (in conjunction with the remainder of the left bloc of the Greens and Mana).