Poll of Polls update – 21 March 2014

The Poll of Polls has been updated following the latest Roy Morgan poll. After the recent doom and gloom following the recent Herald-Digipoll, the new Roy Morgan is rather more uplifting for the left, with the joint Labour and Greens exactly level with National on 45.4%.  Of course, it’s still not crash-hot news for Labour – 31.5% is still only just above the late-20s. Plus it’s still 2.5% below that 34% mark that David Cunliffe reckons Labour’s internal polling puts the party at.

So how does the updated Poll of Polls look now?

National: 47.9% (-0.4%)

Labour: 31.7% (-0.2%)

Greens: 11.6% (+0.7%)

NZ First: 4.1% (-0.1%)

Maori: 1.2 (+0.2%)

United Future: 0.3% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (nc)

Mana: 0.4% (nc)

Conservative: 1.8% (nc)

Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 61 (-1)

Labour: 41 (nc)

Greens: 15 (+1)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

National therefore goes from governing alone at the last update, to now requiring one of either United Future or ACT. Labour, the Greens and Mana gain one more seat between them, bringing the left bloc to a total of 57 seats, 5 short of the 62 seats needed to govern.

Despite the relatively better Roy Morgan poll result, Labour still continues to drop, while the Greens continue to climb.

The minor parties (Greens aside) are largely flatlining. The Maori party regain what they lost last update, while NZ First shows no signs of moving upward towards that vital 5% threshold.


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