Poll of Polls updated – 18 March 2014

The Poll of Polls has now been updated following the latest NZ Herald Digipoll. The NZ Herald poll is certainly bad news for Labour, with the party dropping below 30%, while National hits 50.8%. David Cunliffe’s personal popularity is going through the floor, with a preferred Prime Minister rating of just 11.1%, less even that David Shearer’s worst rating in the Digipoll of 12.4%.

So how does the Poll of Polls look now, factoring in the new Digipoll?

National: 48.3% (+0.9%)

Labour: 31.9% (-1.4%)

Greens: 10.9% (+0.4%)

NZ First: 4.2% (nc)

Maori: 1.0 (-0.2%)

United Future: 0.3% (nc)

ACT: 0.5% (+0.1%)

Mana: 0.4% (-0.1%)

Conservative: 1.8% (-0.1%)
Based on those percentages, the new seat predictions are:

National: 62 (+1)

Labour: 41 (-2)

Greens: 14 (+1)

Maori: 2 (nc)

United Future: 1 (nc)

ACT: 1 (nc)

Mana: 1 (nc)

Despite a two-seat overhang, National could govern alone, while with its United Future and ACT allies, they’ve got 64 seats between them. Labour, the Greens and Mana are left in the dust, with just 56 seats between them.

The gulf between the left and right blocs is now so large that even if NZ First were to make the 5% threshold,* a five-way coalition of Labour, Greens, Mana, Maori Party and NZ First would still be one seat short.

Although the big movement is in the three largest parties, it’s interesting to note what’s going on with the minor parties:

Despite Winston Peters being everywhere in the media lately, he’s gained absolutely no traction in the Poll of Polls. Whether his latest round of interviews and press coverage over the previous few days begins to show results come next update remains to be seen.

For the Maori and Mana parties, their support is slowly slipping away. They’ve had no oxygen for some time, and it seems to be showing.

On the other hand, Colin Craig seems to be proving that not all publicity is good publicity. His very public legal feuding with Russell Norman has yielded many a column inch and media soundbite, but the Conservatives merely slide back 0.1% to 1.8%. Craig hasn’t had much to say lately that’s been on message – although perhaps he’d be wise to first work out just what his message is.

And of course there’s ACT. Perennially written off and lately the butt of all sorts of jokes involving Duelling Banjos, it’s creeping up in the Poll of Polls. Given that the first four of the nine polls currently being weighted in the Poll of Polls showed ACT flatlining on zero, it’s likely that the party will continue to show modest gains for at least a few more months. Of course, none of the polls published this year show ACT even remotely close to getting two MPs, so on current polling David Seymour will cut a lonely figure should he succeed in winning Epsom.

* I arrive at NZ First reaching 5% by taking 0.3% off both National & Labour, and 0.2% from the Conservatives. His votes have to come from somewhere…


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