I’ve been setting up a spreadsheet of all the major polls conducted from mid-December 2013 (Colmar-Brunton, Ipsos, Digipoll, Roy Morgan, Reid Research, H.O.S Key Research), to create a Poll of Polls, which I’ll be updating each time a new poll comes out.
Methodology-wise, each poll is weighted depending on how recent it is and for the sample size, with adjustments made for in-house bias.
As of today, the results are as follows:
NZ First: 4.2%
United Future: 0.3%
So what does that mean? Well, NZ First and the Conservatives don’t make it in, but I’m assuming that ACT, United Future and Mana all keep their current seats. I’m assuming that the Maori party retains two seats, rather than their current three, as I just don’t see them getting any more than two. (I’ll revise my predictions on minor party seats if and when any electorate-level polling appears, and if/when Mr Key makes clear whether there’ll be an arrangement with Colin Craig.)
Therefore, my seat predictions are:
United Future: 1
With a two seat Parliamentary overhang, National could govern with just one of either United Future or ACT, while Labour, the Greens and Mana would be well short, with just 57 seats between them (5 seats short of the necessary total).
Of course, if NZ First make it over the 5% threshold, the maths will change rather dramatically, with the wasted vote falling from over 7% to around only 2%. Watch this space…
I’ve just run some numbers whereby NZ First scrapes in with 5% of the vote (taking 0.3% off both National & Labour, and 0.2% off the Conservatives – feel free to critique my rough estimate of where Mr Peters’ extra votes would come from…).
Running those numbers, 62 seats are needed to form a government, with National holding only 58 seats. The “centre-right” bloc of National, United Future and Act would together hold 60 seats – two short, therefore needing either the Maori party’s two seats or NZ First’s 6 seats. The “centre-left” bloc of Labour, the Greens and Mana would hold 54 seats together, therefore requiring all of both NZ First and the Maori parties combined 8 seats to reach the requisite 62 seats. Somehow, I can’t see that coalition working…